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@InProceedings{PereiraBeneAlme:2011:DyMoCh,
               author = "Pereira, Rudiney Soares and Benedetti, Ana Caroline Paim and 
                         Almeida, Cl{\'a}udia Maria de",
          affiliation = "{} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Dynamic Modeling for Changes Simulations in the Forest Cover in 
                         Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil",
            booktitle = "Proceedings...",
                 year = "2011",
         organization = "FIG Working Week 2011. - Bridging the Gap Between Cultures.",
            publisher = "International Federation of Surveyors - FIG",
                 note = "Setores de Atividade: Agricultura, Pecu{\'a}ria, 
                         Produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o Florestal, Pesca e Aq{\"u}icultura, Pesquisa 
                         e desenvolvimento cient{\'{\i}}fico. and 
                         {Informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es Adicionais: Work presented in the oral 
                         session entitled {"}Spatial Information Processing II - TS09C{"} 
                         on 05/21/2011..}",
             keywords = "remote sensing, NDVI, dynamic modelling, transition matrix.",
             abstract = "Significative processes of conversion in the land use patterns 
                         have been verified in the State of Rio Grande do Sul due to the 
                         incorporation of forest areas during the last years. In this 
                         conception, this work aims to establish the methodological 
                         guidelines to analyze the dynamics of these patterns in the Serras 
                         do Sudeste and Campanha Meridional, which are micro regions 
                         located in the southern part of the State. Thematic maps from the 
                         years 2000, 2004 and 2008 were elaborate through the product NDVI 
                         (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from the MODIS sensor in 
                         a way to relate this index to the land use classes. The maps that 
                         we elaborated were used to drive a dynamic model, which made it 
                         possible to quantify, through the use of Markov model, the 
                         conversion rates between classes. The simulation designed using 
                         the probabilistic method weighs-of-evidence, and allowed to assess 
                         the role of influential variables in the forest cover changes of 
                         both micro regions. The main results are simulations based on the 
                         paradigm of Cellular Automata (CA), in which the forest areas are 
                         quantified and spatially distributed until the year 2016. The 
                         predictions modeled, based on the considered variables, indicate 
                         that the forest will expand over spaces previously allocated to 
                         agricultural activities and to extensive grazing of cattle, either 
                         with the introduction of exotic species or by means of 
                         regeneration. The forest cover in Serras do Sudeste will increase 
                         from 8,6% to 16,2% by the end of the period. In Campanha 
                         Meridional the increase will be from 11,1% to 12,5% and, in both 
                         micro regions, the expansion will tend to stabilize within the 
                         observed period.",
  conference-location = "Marrakesh, Marrocos Marrakesh, Marrocos",
      conference-year = "2011",
                label = "lattes: 1861914973833506 3 PereiraBeneAlme:2011:DyMoCh",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "pereira_dynamic.pdf",
                  url = "http://www.fig.net/fig2011/",
        urlaccessdate = "18 jan. 2021"
}


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