author = "Lefebvre, Paul and Nepstad, Daniel and Solorzano, Luis and 
                         Tomasella, Javier and Silva, Urbano and Schlesinger, Peter",
                title = "An improved soil water budget model for predicting drought 
                         stress-related forest flammability in the Amazon Basin",
                 year = "2002",
         organization = "International LBA Scientific Conference, 2.",
             keywords = "METEOROLOGIA.",
             abstract = "The RisQue (Risco de Queimadas)spatial model of flammability based 
                         on soil moisture stocks, under development since 1998, continues 
                         to evolve. The soil map of maximum Plant Available Water (PAW), 
                         based on soil texture information from over 1,500 field samples, 
                         has been expanded from the Brazilian Legal Amazon region to cover 
                         the entire Amazon hydrographic basin. Enhanced meteorological data 
                         provided by CPTEC now cover this same region, and Penman-Monteith 
                         estimated Potential Evapotranspiration has superseded previous 
                         estimates calculated after Thornthwaite, using GOES-derived 
                         radiation fields. All spatial interpolation is now done via 
                         Kriging. The vegetation mask, used to constrain deep soil water 
                         estimations for forests only, has been updated to reflect recent 
                         deforestation, and the spatial resolution has improved. 
                         Sensitivity of the model to Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration 
                         estimates were analyzed by running the model with ET at -15 
                         percent, -5 percent and + 15 percent of actual estimates. A 5 
                         percent reduction in ET resulted in a 60 percent decrease in the 
                         area of depleted soil moisture stocks, and a 38 percent decrease 
                         in the area of stocks diminished to less than 250mm of water in a 
                         10m column of soil. 5 percent increase in ET resulted in a 
                         two-fold increase in area of depleted soil moisture stocks, and a 
                         38 percent increase in the are suffering depletion to less than 
                         250mm. We find fair agreement between model output and field 
                         measurements of plant-available soil water to 10 m depth, with 
                         actual soil moisture measured using TDR at our field stations in 
                         the FLONA Tapaj{\'o}s and in Paragominas; average model estimates 
                         of soil water stocks averaged19 percent lower than field 
                         measurements for the FLONA Tapaj{\'o}s, and 8 percent lower for 
  conference-location = "Manaus, Br",
      conference-year = "7-10 July 2002",
                label = "10234",
           targetfile = "9315.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "22 jan. 2021"