author = "Huntingford, C. and Harris, P. P. and Gash, J. H. C. and Cox, P. 
                         M. and Betts, R. A. and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio",
                title = "The use of a GCM analogue model to assess the impact of 
                         uncertainty in Amazonian land surface parameterisation on future 
                         atmospheric CO{\'y} concentrations",
                 year = "2002",
         organization = "International LBA Scientific Conference, 2.",
             keywords = "METEOROLOGIA.",
             abstract = "Based on Hadley Centre GCM simulations, propagating patterns exist 
                         in the way that surface climatology is predicted to vary within a 
                         changing climate. Such patterns are observed for surface 
                         temperature, humidity, solar forcing and rainfall, which all 
                         influence land-surface response. The derived spatial patterns are 
                         indexed by the global mean land temperature, which, within the 
                         resultant {"}GCM analogue model{"}, depends upon modelled 
                         atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The analogue model 
                         has been extended to incorporate an interactive global carbon 
                         cycle. The model generates a surface climate, consistent with 
                         atmospheric CO2 concentration, which is used to drive a 
                         land-surface scheme (MOSES)coupled to a dynamic terrestrial carbon 
                         cycle model (TRIFFID). Changes in terrestrial carbon are allowed 
                         to feedback onto atmospheric CO2 concentration, and a {"}single 
                         point{"} sub-model represents global atmosphere-ocean CO2 fluxes. 
                         Such inclusion of land and ocean carbon dioxide feedbacks means 
                         that a model is available that may be driven by a range of carbon 
                         emissions scenarios, is based upon the latest GCM simulations and 
                         places high physical representation within the land surface 
                         component. Using this computationally quick methodology, the 
                         sensitivity of the global carbon cycle to uncertainty in the 
                         land-surface parameterisation for Amaz{\^o}nia is investigated. 
                         Such uncertainty is directly related to the trajectory in 
                         atmospheric CO2 concentration for a {"}business as usual{"} 
                         emissions scenario. As such, some measure of {"}error bars{"} on 
                         predictions of future climate change can be related directly to 
                         uncertainty in Amaz{\^o}nian land-surface response.",
  conference-location = "Manaus, Br",
      conference-year = "7-10 July 2002",
                label = "10239",
           targetfile = "9320.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "20 jan. 2021"