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@InProceedings{AguiarOmSoAsAnLa:2012:CoEmRe,
               author = "Aguiar, A. P. D. and Ometto, J. P. and Soler, L. S. and Assis, T. 
                         and Andrade, P. R. and Lapolla, D.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {UNESP/Rio Claro}",
                title = "Scenarios for the Amazonia 2050: combining emission reductions and 
                         social development",
            booktitle = "Abstracts...",
                 year = "2012",
         organization = "Planet Under Pressure Conference, (PUP).",
             keywords = "land use, scenario, Amazonia, modeling.",
             abstract = "Deforestation in Amazonia has decreased significantly in the last 
                         five years, from around 27,772 km2 in 2004 to around 6,000 km2 in 
                         2010. This decrease has been attributed to a net of 
                         governmental/civil society actions, and commodities markets 
                         related factors. In spite of this, there is an enormous 
                         uncertainty about the fate of the forest. In the next decades, we 
                         can expect an increase in food and biofuel demands associated to 
                         global population growth and consumption patterns, which can 
                         induce both direct and indirect deforestation. Ambitious 
                         infra-structure plans also may induce occupation of unprotected 
                         areas. Possible climate change can affect the region through 
                         intensification of droughts and vulnerability to forest fires. In 
                         order to explore future scenarios for the region, there is a need 
                         to understand which institutional, political and economical 
                         conditions at multiple levels, from national to local, will be 
                         able to act as a counterforce to the commodities market pressure, 
                         reducing emissions while bringing social development. We present 
                         the preliminary results of a project aiming at discussing 
                         sustainability scenarios for the Amazonia, combining a qualitative 
                         scenario methodology and two spatially-explicit quantitative 
                         modeling frameworks: one for land use change (LuccME) and another 
                         for deforestation emission estimates (INPE-EM), both representing 
                         the heterogeneity of land change processes in the region. A panel 
                         of expert constructed storylines quantified in terms of pasture, 
                         annual/perennial crops, and secondary vegetation trajectories. 
                         INPE-EM is coupled to LuccME to estimate emission reductions 
                         resulting from spatial projections of land use trajectories under 
                         three different scenarios: (a) emission reductions without social 
                         development; (b) sustainability and social development; (c) return 
                         to uncontrolled deforestation. Initial modeling results showed 
                         that emission reduction in (a) and (b) can be of the order of 6 
                         GtCO2 or more, depending on socioeconomic incentives to the 
                         expansion and permanence of secondary vegetation as sinks of 
                         carbon.",
  conference-location = "London",
      conference-year = "26-29 Mar. 2012",
        urlaccessdate = "28 jan. 2021"
}


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