author = "Rodriguez, Daniel Andres and Tomasella, J.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Simulation of the impacts land use and land cover changes - LUCC 
                         on the hydrological response of the Ji-Parana Basin with MGB-INPE 
            booktitle = "Abstracts...",
                 year = "2012",
                pages = "8264",
         organization = "EGU General Assembly.",
                 note = "{Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14}",
             keywords = "impacts, land use, land cover, Ji-Parana Basin.",
             abstract = "Hydrological response results from innumerous processes 
                         interacting at different spatial and temporal scales and with 
                         various intensities. Since the hydrological impacts of Land use 
                         and land cover change (LUCC) and climate variability (CV) are 
                         strongly dependent on soil water flow pathways, an adequate 
                         representation of the runoff generation mechanisms are crucial to 
                         assess the hydrological impacts of LUCC and CV on a basin scale. 
                         Model responses to LUCC depend on structure and parameterizations 
                         used in the model. There are two basic methodologies adopted to 
                         define the structure of the hydrological model: downward and 
                         upward approaches. Upward approach is more appropriate for 
                         identifying causal relationships, but their results are highly 
                         affected by assumptions used in the development of the model. 
                         Besides, model structure and parameters values definition are 
                         strongly affected by scale issues and their inter-relationships. 
                         Downward approach is more appropriate for studying the effects of 
                         LUCC, but casual relationships are more difficult to identify. 
                         MGB-INPE model was developed based on the Large Scale Basins Model 
                         of Brazilian Institute of Hydraulic Research (MGB-IPH). It uses 
                         the Xinanjiang Model approach for soil water capacity distribution 
                         at each cell combined with TopModel philosophy. Both methodologies 
                         follow a downward approach: the hydrologic response of the basin 
                         is associated with patterns of self-organization observed at the 
                         basin-scale. The model was applied in the Ji-Parana Basin (JPB), a 
                         30.000-km2 basin in the SW Amazonia. The JPB is part of the 
                         Deforestation Arc of Amazonia in Brazil and it has lost more than 
                         50 % of his forest cover since the 80s. Simulations were performed 
                         between 1982 and 2005 considering annual land use and land cover 
                         change. MGB-INPE model was able to represent the impact of LUCC in 
                         the runoff generation process and its dependence with basin 
                         topography. Simulation results agree with observational studies: 
                         LUCC impacts in fast response processes are marked in sub-basins 
                         with steep slopes; while in basins with more gently topography the 
                         impacts are more pronounced in slow responses processes. The model 
                         was not able to capture the dependence of LUCC impacts on spatial 
                         scales: results from simulations have shown the impact increases 
                         almost linearly with basin scale, while analysis based on observed 
                         data have indicated that impacts are diluted at larger scales. 
                         These discrepancies are probably associated with limitations in 
                         the spatial representation of heterogeneities within the model, 
                         which become more relevant at larger scales. For instance, land 
                         use sub-grid variability is accounted only through the percentage 
                         of each land use within the cell, without an explicit 
                         representation of the location of each use within the gridcell, 
                         nor the interaction between land uses.",
  conference-location = "Vienna",
      conference-year = "Apr. 22-27, 2012",
                 issn = "1029-7006",
                label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "rodriguez_simulation.pdf",
               volume = "14",
        urlaccessdate = "17 jan. 2021"