abstract = "ABSTRACT: In this work we investigated if the dispersion of the 
                         ensemble is a good indicator of a predicting forecast skill. The 
                         CPTEC/INPE data used consist the 12h-lagged average forecasts 
                         (LAF) compared with operational ensemble forecast of sample of 15 
                         forecast for the variables 500 hPa geopotential height, air 
                         temperature at 850 hPa pressure level and mean sea level pressure. 
                         Analising the dispersion diagram and the contingency table with 
                         the spread and the skill we observed which forecast day has high 
                         skill and low dispersion. We noted that lagged average forecast 
                         shows similar performance to operational EPS-CPTEC/INPE and that 
                         there are a tendency to high skill for the ensemble mean when 
                         spread forecast is low for 5 and 7 day forecast. These results 
                         provide the basis for the operational implementation of the LAF 
                         technique, which has low computational cost, and contribute to a 
                         more efficient utilization of the CPTEC/INPE ensemble predictions. 
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
               author = "Machado, L{\'u}cia Helena Ribas and Mendon{\c{c}}a, Ant{\^o}nio 
                         Marcos and Weissmann, Renata Borges Mendon{\c{c}}a and Bonatti, 
                         Jos{\'e} Paulo",
             keywords = "ensemble prediction system, spread, lagged average forecasts.",
             language = "pt",
            publisher = "Instituto and Nacional and de and Pesquisas and Espaciais",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP7W/37UCPS5",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP7W/37UCPS5",
           targetfile = "v1.pdf",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do uso do espalhamento como preditor do 
                         desempenho da previs{\~a}o de tempo por conjuntos do CPTEC/INPE",
         typeofmedium = "On-line",
                 year = "2010",
        urlaccessdate = "22 jan. 2021"