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@Article{HirotaNobrOyamBust:2010:ClSeFo,
               author = "Hirota, Marina and Nobre, Carlos Afonso and Oyama, MD and 
                         Bustamante, MM.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and Instituto de 
                         Aeron{\'a}utica e Espa{\c{c}}o, Divis{\~a}o de Ci{\^e}ncias 
                         Atmosf{\'e}ricas, Pra{\c{c}}a Marechal Eduardo Gomes, 50, 
                         12228-904 S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos, SP, Brasil and Univ 
                         Brasilia, Dept Ecol, Inst Biol, Brasilia, DF Brazil",
                title = "The climatic sensitivity of the forest, savanna and forest-savanna 
                         transition in tropical South America",
              journal = "Nature",
                 year = "2010",
               volume = "187",
               number = "3",
                pages = "707--719.",
                month = "Aug.",
             keywords = "social-ecological systems, tree-grass coexistence, brazilian 
                         amazon, vegetation model, atmospheric co2, dynamics, fire, 
                         deforestation, resilience, ecosystems, climate change, conceptual 
                         modeling, forest-savanna boundary, natural fires, South America.",
             abstract = "P>We used a climate-vegetation-natural fire (CVNF) conceptual 
                         model to evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of forest, 
                         savanna, and the forest-savanna transition to environmental 
                         changes in tropical South America. Initially, under current 
                         environmental conditions, CVNF model results suggested that, in 
                         the absence of fires, tropical forests would extend c. 200 km into 
                         the presently observed savanna domain. Environmental changes were 
                         then imposed upon the model in temperature, precipitation and 
                         lightning strikes. These changes ranged from 2 to 6 degrees C 
                         warming, +10 to -20% precipitation change and 0 to 15% increase in 
                         lightning frequency, which, in aggregate form, represent expected 
                         future climatic changes in response to global warming and 
                         deforestation. The most critical vegetation changes are projected 
                         to take place over the easternmost portions of the basin, with a 
                         widening of the forest-savanna transition. The transition width 
                         would increase from 150 to c. 300 km, with tree cover losses 
                         ranging from 20 to 85%. This means that c. 6% of the areas 
                         currently covered by forests could potentially turn into 
                         grass-dominated savanna landscapes. The mechanism driving tree 
                         cover reduction consists of the combination of less favorable 
                         climate conditions for trees and more fire activity. In addition, 
                         this sensitivity analysis predicts that the current dry shrubland 
                         vegetation of northeast Brazil could potentially turn into a bare 
                         soil landscape.",
                  doi = "10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03352.x",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03352.x",
                 issn = "0028-0836",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "hirotanobre.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 jan. 2021"
}


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