@InProceedings{LatinovicChouNobr:2013:CaMoGl,
author = "Latinovic, Dragan and Chou, Sin Chan and Nobre, Paulo",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Capacidade do modelo Global Eta Framework (GEF) para prever
eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos/ Capability of Global Eta
Framework(GEF) to predict extreme climate events",
booktitle = "Anais...",
year = "2013",
organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Internacional de Climatologia, 5. (SIC).",
keywords = "GEF, quasi-uniform, climate.",
abstract = "RESUMO: Global Eta Framework (GEF) {\'e} um modelo
atmosf{\'e}rico global baseado em grades quase-uniformes. Grades
esf{\'e}ricas quase-uniformes representam uma alternativa
atraente para o padr{\~a}o de grades esf{\'e}ricas de lat-lon
para aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o em modelos globais para a atmosfera e o
oceano. Gra{\c{c}}as aos pontos de grade quase igualmente
distribu{\'{\i}}dos que essas grades tem, n{\~a}o existe a
incoer{\^e}ncia da resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o na {\'a}rea em torno
dos p{\'o}los em compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o com a {\'a}rea em torno
do equador, assim como n{\~a}o existem singularidades nos
p{\'o}los, que {\'e} t{\'{\i}}pico para qualquer grade baseada
em padr{\~a}o de lat-lon. Efici{\^e}ncia excepcional
computacional deste modelo prop{\~o}e-o como uma das ferramentas
mais {\'u}teis para pesquisas clim{\'a}ticas. Nesta pesquisa, o
modelo foi rodado para o per{\'{\i}}odo de 2 anos, pela primeira
vez, e havia duas rodadas realizadas, for{\c{c}}adas pelos dados
de TSM obtidos a partir de rean{\'a}lise NCEP, com
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais de fevereiro de 1996 e fevereiro de
1998. Estes anos para as condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais foram
escolhidos a fim de avaliar a capacidade do modelo para simular as
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de um dos eventos mais extremos do ENOS, com
sua fase quente-El Niņo, em 1997 e fase frio-La Niņa em 1999. Para
testar as leis de conserva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo, os campos da
press{\~a}o de superf{\'{\i}}cie e precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
acumulada foram analisados. Para o padr{\~a}o de grande escala,
os resultados do modelo dos campos de temperatura em 850mb,
velocidade do vento em 200mb e 850mb e precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
acumulada foram comparados com os dados de rean{\'a}lise
apropriados do projeto Era Interim e dados observados de GPCP.
Al{\'e}m disso, as correla{\c{c}}{\~o}es espaciais foram
calculadas e analisadas. Todos os testes foram feitos com os
valores m{\'e}dios de tr{\^e}s meses de inverno e ver{\~a}o. No
final, a diferen{\c{c}}a do ano de El Niņo e o ano de La Niņa, de
todos os campos mencionados, e para ambas as esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es
foi calculada, plotada e comparada com as observa{\c{c}}{\~o}es
e rean{\'a}lises apropriados, a fim de verificar a capacidade do
modelo para prever esta anomalia. O principal motivo para esta
pesquisa foi uma an{\'a}lise mais profunda das melhoras recentes
realizadas no modelo GEF, com base na tentativa de estender a
rodada do modelo at{\'e} escalas clim{\'a}ticas. Todos os testes
realizados e os resultados obtidos levam-nos a concluir que o GEF
{\'e} definitivamente capaz de rodar em escalas clim{\'a}ticas,
bem como de captar o sinal de evento clim{\'a}tico extremo, como
{\'e} um fen{\^o}meno ENOS. ABSTRACT: Global Eta Framework(GEF)
is a global atmospheric model based on quasi-uniform grids.
Quasi-uniform spherical grids represent an attractive alternative
to the standard lat-lon spherical grids for application in global
models for the atmosphere and ocean. Thanks to nearly equally
distributed grid points which these grids have, inconsistency of
the resolution in the area around the poles compared with the area
around the equator is avoided, as well as existence of
singularities on the poles, which is typical for any lat-lon based
grid. Exceptional computing efficiency of this model proposed it
as one of the most useful tools in climate researches. In this
research, the model was run for the period of 2 years, for the
first time, and there were two runs performed, forced by the SST
data obtained from NCEP reanalysis, with initial conditions from
February 1996 and February 1998. These years for initial
conditions were chosen in order to assess the capability of the
model to simulate the conditions of one of the most extreme ENSO
events, with its warm, El Niņo phase from 1997 and cold, La Niņa
phase from 1999. To test conservation laws of the model, surface
pressure and accumulated precipitation fields were analyzed. For
the large scale pattern, the model outputs of the fields of
temperature at 850mb, wind speed at 200mb and 850mb and
accumulated precipitation were compared with the appropriate
reanalysis data from Era Interim project and observed data from
GPCP. In addition, the spatial correlations were calculated and
analyzed. All of the tests were done using three months average
values for the winter and summer season. At the end, the
difference of the year with El Niņo and the year with La Niņa for
all the mentioned fields, and for both seasons was calculated,
plotted and compared with appropriate reanalysis and observations
in order to check the capability of the model to predict that
anomaly. The main motivation for this research was further
analysis of the recent improvements made on GEF, based on the
attempt to extend the model run up to the climate scales. All the
tests performed and results obtained lead us to conclusion that
GEF is definitely capable of running on climate scales as well as
of capturing the signal of extreme climate event such is ENSO
phenomenon.",
conference-location = "Florian{\'o}polis, SC",
conference-year = "15-19, set.",
urlaccessdate = "23 jan. 2021"
}