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@Article{Arag„oPBAMSPG:2014:EnChCa,
               author = "Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de and Poulter, Benjamin 
                         and Barlow, Jos B. and Anderson, Liana Oighenstein and Malhi, 
                         Yadvinder and Saatchi, Sassan and Phillips, Oliver L. and Gloor, 
                         Emanuel",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and {} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Environmental change and the carbon balance of Amazonian forests",
              journal = "Biological Reviews",
                 year = "2014",
               volume = "00",
             keywords = "carbon emissions, recovery, drought, fire, climate, secondary 
                         forests, deforestation.",
             abstract = "Extreme climatic events and land-use change are known to influence 
                         strongly the current carbon cycle of Amazonia, and have the 
                         potential to cause significant global climate impacts. This review 
                         intends to evaluate the effects of both climate and anthropogenic 
                         perturbations on the carbon balance of the Brazilian Amazon and to 
                         understand how they interact with each other. By analysing the 
                         outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 
                         Assessment Report 4 (AR4) model ensemble, we demonstrate that 
                         Amazonian temperatures and water stress are both likely to 
                         increase over the 21st Century. Curbing deforestation in the 
                         Brazilian Amazon by 62% in 2010 relative to the 1990s mean 
                         decreased the Brazilian Amazons deforestation contribution to 
                         global land use carbon emissions from 17% in the 1990s and early 
                         2000s to 9% by 2010. Carbon sources in Amazonia are likely to be 
                         dominated by climatic impacts allied with forest fires (48.3% 
                         relative contribution) during extreme droughts. The current net 
                         carbon sink (net biome productivity, NBP) of +0.16 (ranging from 
                         +0.11 to +0.21) PgCyear\−1 in the Brazilian Amazon, 
                         equivalent to 13.3% of global carbon emissions from land-use 
                         change for 2008, can be negated or reversed during drought years 
                         [NBP=\−0.06 (\−0.31 to +0.01) PgCyear\−1]. 
                         Therefore, reducing forest fires, in addition to reducing 
                         deforestation, would be an important measure for minimizing future 
                         emissions. Conversely, doubling the current area of secondary 
                         forests and avoiding additional removal of primary forests would 
                         help the Amazonian gross forest sink to offset approximately 42% 
                         of global land-use change emissions. We conclude that a few 
                         strategic environmental policy measures are likely to strengthen 
                         the Amazonian net carbon sink with global implications. Moreover, 
                         these actions could increase the resilience of the net carbon sink 
                         to future increases in drought frequency.",
                  doi = "10.1111/brv.12088",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/brv.12088",
                 issn = "1464-7931 and 1469-185X",
                label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "brv12088.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 dez. 2020"
}


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