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@InProceedings{FialhoBottChouGome:2014:AvNuMo,
               author = "Fialho, Wendell Max Barbosa and Bottino, Marcus Jorge and Chou, 
                         Sin Chan and Gomes, Jorge Luis",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o Num{\'e}rica do Modelo ETA de 5 km para a 
                         Bacia Hidrogr{\'a}fica do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul",
                 year = "2014",
         organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 18.",
             keywords = "convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o, parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o.",
             abstract = "Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar a previs{\~a}o de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar sobre a 
                         regi{\~a}o da bacia hidrogr{\'a}fica do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba do 
                         Sul utilizando o modelo regional Eta do CPTEC numa 
                         resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 5 km. O modelo foi rodado no modo de 
                         conjunto com 5 membros, combinando diferentes esquemas de 
                         convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o (Betts-Miller, Kain-Fritsch e Kain-Fritsch 
                         com fluxo de momentum), microf{\'{\i}}sica (Ferrier e Zhao) e 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~a}o inicial e de contorno (modelo Eta 40km/ 
                         modelo global com an{\'a}lise do NCEP e modelo GFS). Para 
                         realiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o deste estudo foram utilizadas as 
                         previs{\~o}es operacionais na configura{\c{c}}{\~a}o original 
                         (Vers{\~a}o 1) e integra{\c{c}}{\~o}es experimentais dos 
                         membros com convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o Betts-Miller com ajustes de 
                         par{\^a}metros (Vers{\~a}o 2). O objetivo destes ajustes foi 
                         reduzir excessos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e 
                         radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar incidente {\`a} superf{\'{\i}}cie 
                         verificados na Vers{\~a}o 1 do modelo. A diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o ocorreu atrav{\'e}s da 
                         redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do deficit de press{\~a}o no n{\'{\i}}vel 
                         da base de congelamento e do topo da nuvem, enquanto que para a 
                         redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar houve uma 
                         redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do fluxo solar no topo da atmosfera baseado no 
                         efeito dos aeross{\'o}is. As an{\'a}lises foram efetuadas com 
                         previs{\~o}es do modelo Eta inicializado com as 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais das 00 UTC, com sa{\'{\i}}das 
                         hor{\'a}rias num per{\'{\i}}odo de 24 horas entre a 25a e a 48a 
                         hora de previs{\~a}o. Foram utilizados dados hor{\'a}rios de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar do INMET, 
                         interpolados para a resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo, como 
                         tamb{\'e}m produtos de sat{\'e}lite com estimativas de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do CMORPH/NOAA e de radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         solar do CPTEC/INPE. Foi verificado que para a Vers{\~a}o 1 a 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o foi melhor prevista pelo esquema 
                         Kain-Fritsch. Os ajustes nos membros com convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         Betts-Miller (Vers{\~a}o 2) mostraram uma significativa 
                         redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o na superestimativa da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         encontrada na Vers{\~a}o 1. A radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o solar na 
                         Vers{\~a}o 1 e 2 foi melhor estimada pelo esquema de 
                         convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o Betts-Miller/The objective of the present 
                         study is to evaluate the forecast of precipitation and radiation 
                         over Rio Paraiba do Sul watershed by using CPTEC Eta regional 
                         Model in 5-km resolution. The model was run in conjunction with 5 
                         members combining different convection schemes (Betts-Miller, 
                         Kain-Fritsch and Kain-Fritsch with momentum fluxes, microphysics 
                         (Ferrier and Zhao), initial condition and boundary (Eta 40-km 
                         Global Model with NCEP and GFS models analysis). For this study, 
                         operational forecasts were used with default settings (Version 1) 
                         and experimental integrations of Betts-Miller convection members 
                         with parameter settings (Version 2). The purpose of these 
                         adjustments was to reduce excess of precipitation and incident 
                         solar radiation at surface observed in models Version 1. The 
                         reduction in precipitation occurred by reducing the pressure 
                         deficit at the base of of freezing-level and the cloud top, 
                         whereas for reduction of solar radiation there was a reduction on 
                         solar flux at top of atmosphere based on aerosols effects. 
                         Analysis was performed with Eta Model which the initial-condition 
                         of 00 UTC was initialized generating hourly outputs in a 24-hr 
                         period between the 25th and 48th hour forecast. We used INMET 
                         precipitation and solar radiation hourly data, interpolated for 
                         model resolution, as well as satellite products such as 
                         precipitation rainfall from CMORPH/NOAA and solar radiation from 
                         CPTEC/INPE. Results indicated that for Version 1 the precipitation 
                         was best predicted by using Kain-Fritsch scheme. The adjustments 
                         on Betts-Miller convection members (Version 2) showed a 
                         significantly reduction in the overestimation of precipitation, 
                         previously found in Version 1. Solar radiation, both for Version 1 
                         and 2, was best estimated by Betts-Miller convection scheme.",
  conference-location = "Recife, PE",
      conference-year = "3-6 nov., 2014.",
        urlaccessdate = "17 jan. 2021"
}


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