author = "Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda and Latinovic, Dragan and Chou, Sin 
                         Chan and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Ant{\^o}nio",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es e Proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es Clim{\'a}ticas 
                         Regionais sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul/ Regional Climate 
                         Simulations and Projections over South America",
                 year = "2014",
         organization = "Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 18. (CBMET).",
             keywords = "regional modelling, downscaling, climate change.",
             abstract = "The objective of this study is to assess the climate simulations 
                         and projections over South America using the regional climate Eta 
                         Model driven by fully coupled Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES of the 
                         Met Office Hadley Centre. The HadGEM2-ES was designed to run the 
                         major scenarios for IPCC AR5 and comprises Earth system components 
                         such as terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle and tropospheric 
                         chemistry. Over the past years the regional climate Eta Model has 
                         been used to produce climate change scenarios over South America 
                         (Pesquero et al. 2009, Chou et al. 2012, Marengo et al. 2012). In 
                         this study, Eta model was configured with 38 vertical layers, 
                         20-km grid size and was run over 19602005 based on historical 
                         emissions, and 20062100 based on RCP4.5 scenarios to simulate 
                         possible future changes. We have evaluated the regional climate 
                         simulation for some areas in Brazil, particularly for Amazon and 
                         Northeast, Southeast and South regions of Brazil. Annual cycle of 
                         precipitation and surface temperature for these areas was compared 
                         with CRU (Climatic Research Unit) observational data. Simulated 
                         and projected patterns of mean fields of precipitation, 
                         temperature and upper and low-level circulation were analyzed for 
                         austral summer and winter. The regional model reproduces 
                         reasonably well the spatial patterns of the precipitation and 
                         temperature. The downscaling with Eta model improved the 
                         simulation of the seasonal cycle of precipitation and temperature 
                         over Brazil and some regions when compared with HadGEM2-ES. The 
                         projections suggested increases in DJF and JJA temperature of up 
                         to 4 C in continental South America, with more intense changes 
                         occurring in the second half of the twenty-first century. The 
                         precipitation projections showed the major changes in summer.",
  conference-location = "Recife, PE",
      conference-year = "3-6 nov., 2014",
           targetfile = "Lyra_Regional.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "23 jan. 2021"