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@Article{CunninghamBonaFerr:2015:AsImCP,
               author = "Cunningham, Christopher and Bonatti, Jos{\'e} Paulo and Ferreira, 
                         M{\'a}rcio",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Assessing improved CPTEC probabilistic forecasts on medium-range 
                         timescale",
              journal = "Meteorological Applications",
                 year = "2015",
               volume = "22",
               number = "3",
                pages = "378--384",
                month = "July",
             keywords = "assessment, ensemble, forecast, medium range, probabilities.",
             abstract = "The present study assesses the medium-range probabilistic forecast 
                         issued using an improved version of the Centre for Weather 
                         Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) Ensemble Prediction System 
                         (EPS). This version includes improvements made to the method used 
                         to select the fastest growing modes (the empirical orthogonal 
                         functions (EOF)-based method), and the bias correction. Results 
                         demonstrate that this improved CPTEC EPS surpasses the skills of 
                         the current operational version. An assessment was conducted using 
                         the framework of the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble 
                         (TIGGE), comparing three configurations of the CPTEC EPS to the 
                         EPS from the National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and 
                         the Korean Meteorological Agency (KMA). The score adopted for 
                         metrics was the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), 
                         calculated for absolute temperature at the 850hPa level (T850), 
                         and sea level pressure (SLP). The best improvements were found for 
                         T850 over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, with a general 
                         increase of 9days in the useful forecast horizon. SLP augments are 
                         more modest, with useful performance extension of 2days in the 
                         Northern Hemisphere and 3days in the Southern Hemisphere. All the 
                         EPSs over the Southern Hemisphere showed a general decrease in 
                         performance when compared with their respective counterparts in 
                         the Northern Hemisphere, both for T850 and SLP. Over the Tropics, 
                         SLP is better predicted than T850 by most EPSs, but the NCEP EPS 
                         presents the best performance over this region with similar scores 
                         for the two variables.",
                  doi = "10.1002/met.1464",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1464",
                 issn = "1350-4827",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "cunningham_assessing.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 nov. 2020"
}


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