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@MastersThesis{Barreto:2015:AvDeSi,
               author = "Barreto, Elaine Cristina Abreu",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do desempenho do sistema de previs{\~a}o 
                         por conjuntos do CPTEC/INPE na detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         v{\'o}rtices cicl{\^o}nicos de altos n{\'{\i}}veis na 
                         regi{\~a}o tropical",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2015",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2015-06-09",
             keywords = "previs{\~a}o por conjuntos, VCAN, regi{\~a}o tropical, 
                         prediction for ensemble, UACV, northern region.",
             abstract = "Este estudo pioneiro tem por objetivo avaliar o desempenho do 
                         Sistema de Previs{\~a}o por Conjunto (SPCON) na 
                         detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o de V{\'o}rtices Cicl{\^o}nicos de Altos 
                         N{\'{\i}}veis (VCAN) na regi{\~a}o tropical. O SPCON avaliado 
                         {\'e} a vers{\~a}o MB09 do Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e 
                         Estudos Clim{\'a}ticos do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (CPTEC/INPE), que encontra-se ainda em fase de 
                         implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Esta vers{\~a}o conta com 
                         modifica{\c{c}}{\~o}es no m{\'e}todo de cria{\c{c}}{\~a}o das 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais perturbadas. O desempenho do SPCON 
                         foi avaliado sobre v{\'a}rios aspectos: avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         geral do SPCON, avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o semiobjetiva atrav{\'e}s da 
                         disposi{\c{c}}{\~a}o geogr{\'a}fica das previs{\~o}es dos 
                         membros do conjunto, e avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o objetiva atrav{\'e}s 
                         de uma compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre o desempenho da m{\'e}dia do 
                         conjunto (ENM) e o desempenho do membro controle (CTRL), al{\'e}m 
                         de uma compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o das vers{\~o}es MB09 e OPER 
                         (vers{\~a}o futura e operacional, respectivamente) do CPTEC/INPE. 
                         Para este estudo foram selecionados 8 eventos que ocorreram no 
                         ver{\~a}o (Dezembro, Janeiro e Fevereiro) entre os anos de 2009 a 
                         2011. A {\'a}rea de estudo compreende os intervalos entre 
                         10\$^{}\$N e 20\$^{}\$S e 010\$^{}\$E e 060\$^{}\$W. A 
                         fun{\c{c}}{\~a}o de corrente foi a vari{\'a}vel utilizada para 
                         definir a localiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o do VCANs, no n{\'{\i}}vel de 
                         200 hPa, e o {\'{\i}}ndice denominado de Probabilidade de 
                         Detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o (PD) foi utilizado como o indicador de acerto 
                         do centro do VCAN, para os limiares de 2 e 4 graus, a partir do 
                         centro observado. De modo geral os resultados mostraram que, a 
                         taxa de detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o do VCANs diminui {\`a} medida que 
                         aumenta o horizonte de previs{\~a}o, e para prazos mais longos o 
                         ENM tem melhor desempenho do que o CTRL. Os resultados referentes 
                         a avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o semiobjetiva mostraram 3 resultados: i) As 
                         incertezas associadas {\`a}s previs{\~o}es mostraram alto 
                         espalhamento dos membros em curto espa{\c{c}}o de tempo. ii) A 
                         indica{\c{c}}{\~a}o de previsibilidade mostrou que, o desempenho 
                         do SPCON independe do prazo de dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o, havendo, 
                         portanto, baixa e/ ou alta previsibilidade. iii) Os erros 
                         sistem{\'a}ticos mostraram que existe uma tend{\^e}ncia 
                         preferencial na detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos centros dos VCANs. Com 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o a compara{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre as vers{\~o}es 
                         MB09 e OPER, ficou evidente que melhores detec{\c{c}}{\~o}es dos 
                         VCANs na regi{\~a}o Tropical, s{\~a}o produzidas utilizando a 
                         vers{\~a}o MB09 do que a vers{\~a}o atualmente em 
                         opera{\c{c}}{\~a}o no CPTEC/INPE. ABSTRACT: This pioneer study 
                         aims to evaluate the performance of the Ensemble Prediction System 
                         (EPS) on Upper Air Cyclonic Vortex (UACV) detection at tropical 
                         region. The evaluated version is SPCON-MB09 from the Center for 
                         Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE), which still 
                         lies on the implementation phase. This version counts with 
                         modifications on the creation method of the disturbed initial 
                         conditions. The performance of SPCON was evaluated under many 
                         aspects: overall assessment of SPCON semi-objective evaluation by 
                         the geographical disposal of the ensemble members prediction and 
                         objective assessment throughout a comparison between the 
                         performance of the ensemble average (ENM) and the performance of 
                         the member control (CTRL) besides a comparison of the versions 
                         MB09 and OPER (future and operational version, respectively) of 
                         CPTEC/INPE. For this study were selected eight events that 
                         occurred in the summer (December , January and February) between 
                         the years 2009-2011 .The study area comprises the interval between 
                         10\$^{}\$ N and 20\$^{}\$S and 010\$^{}\$ E and 
                         060\$^{}\$ W. The current function was the variable used to 
                         define the location of the VCAN at the level of 200 hPa and the 
                         index called Probability of Detection (PD) was used as the hit 
                         indicator of the center of the VCANs to the thresholds of 2 and 4 
                         degrees from the observed center. In general, the results showed 
                         that the UACV detection rate decreases as the forecast horizon 
                         increases (up to 360 hours) and for longer terms, the ENM has 
                         better performance than the CTRL. The results related to the 
                         semi-objective evaluation showed many results: i) The 
                         uncertainties associated with forecasts showed high scattering of 
                         members in a short time. ii) The indication of predictability 
                         showed that the performance of SPCON independent of the duration 
                         period, there is therefore low and / or high predictability. iii) 
                         The systematic errors showed that there is a preferred tendency to 
                         detect the center of UACV. Regarding the comparison between the 
                         MB09 and OPER versions, it became clear that better detection of 
                         UACV in Tropical region, are produced using the MB09 version than 
                         the version currently in operation at CPTEC/INPE.",
            committee = "Herdies, Dirceu Luis (presidente) and Castro, Christopher 
                         Alexander Cunningham (orientador) and Bonati, Jos{\'e} Paulo 
                         (orientador) and Seluchi, Marcelo Enrique and Souza, Everaldo 
                         Barreiros",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
         englishtitle = "Performance of the CPTEC/INPE ensemble prediction system in the 
                         detection of high levels in vortex cyclonic in tropical region",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "134",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3JK2AC2",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3JK2AC2",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 nov. 2020"
}


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