author = "Viola, M. R. and Mello, C. R. and Chan, Chou Sin and Yanagi, S. N. 
                         and Gomes, Jorge Luis",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFTO)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Lavras (UFLA)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Assessing climate change impacts on Upper Grande River Basin 
                         hydrology, Southeast Brazil",
              journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
                 year = "2015",
               volume = "35",
               number = "6",
                pages = "1054--1068",
                month = "May",
             keywords = "Eta model, hydrological simulation, climate change, A1B scenario, 
                         run-off components, LASH model.",
             abstract = "Brazilian electric power is mostly based on hydraulics sources 
                         through hydropower plant reservoirs that are fed by rivers located 
                         in Southeast Brazil. Possible changes in climate can affect the 
                         energy supply of the country. The objective of this work is to 
                         assess the possible changes in the hydrology of the Upper Grande 
                         River Basin (UGRB) under a future climate change scenario, using 
                         the Lavras Simulation of Hydrology (LASH) model forced by the 
                         outputs of the Eta model, a regional climate model, which was 
                         driven by HadCM3 A1B scenario for three time slices in the period 
                         between 2011 and 2099. Owing to the surface heterogeneity of the 
                         region, the hydrologic model was previously calibrated for four 
                         watersheds of the UGRB, which are located in its headwater region 
                         and evaluated against observational time series of the present 
                         climate period, 1961-1990. In the first future time slice, 
                         2011-2040, the results showed a small reduction in the annual 
                         run-off, but for the other time slices, the trend changed to 
                         strong increase in most of the watersheds. The water budget in the 
                         region calculated from the Eta model agreed with the run-off 
                         trends, as water excess reduced in the first time slice and 
                         gradually increased towards the end of the century. The run-off 
                         components showed intraseasonal variability. The reduction of 
                         rains in the end of winter, the dry period in the region, and in 
                         the beginning of spring, may cause a change in the dynamics of the 
                         groundwater recharge, affecting the base flow, which can extend 
                         and intensify the flow recession period, and therefore affect the 
                         availability of water resources. On the other hand, the increase 
                         of rains during the summer, the rainy season of the region, caused 
                         an increase of the direct surface run-off, which can modify the 
                         flood regimes of the rivers in the region.",
                  doi = "10.1002/joc.4038",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4038",
                 issn = "0899-8418",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Viola_assessing climate.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "05 dez. 2020"