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@PhDThesis{Lyra:2015:EsVuBi,
               author = "Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda",
                title = "Estudo de vulnerabilidade do bioma Amaz{\^o}nia aos cen{\'a}rios 
                         de mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2015",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2015-08-28",
             keywords = "mudan{\c{c}}a clim{\'a}tica, modelagem regional, 
                         vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o din{\^a}mica, climate change, regional 
                         climate model, dynamic vegetation model.",
             abstract = "Os cen{\'a}rios do IPCC indicam, nas pr{\'o}ximas d{\'e}cadas, 
                         fortes modifica{\c{c}}{\~o}es no meio ambiente global, em 
                         virtude do aumento da concentra{\c{c}}{\~a}o atmosf{\'e}rica de 
                         CO\$_{2}\$ e outros gases de efeito estufa advindos de 
                         atividades antr{\'o}picas. Apesar da redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o na taxa 
                         de desmatamento nos {\'u}ltimos anos, espera-se que o impacto do 
                         aquecimento global por si s{\'o} possa gerar importantes 
                         modifica{\c{c}}{\~o}es na composi{\c{c}}{\~a}o, estrutura e 
                         distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos ecossistemas pelo planeta. Os modelos 
                         de vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o din{\^a}mica permitem representar as 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as na distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o bem como nos processos 
                         biogeoqu{\'{\i}}micos diante de mudan{\c{c}}as no clima. O 
                         objetivo desse estudo foi investigar as poss{\'{\i}}veis 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as no bioma Amaz{\^o}nia resultante de dois 
                         cen{\'a}rios de mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas: RCP4.5 e RCP8.5. 
                         Para isso, os modelos atmosf{\'e}rico Eta e de biosfera InLand 
                         foram acoplados assincronamente para avaliar as 
                         retroalimenta{\c{c}}{\~o}es de longo prazo entre os biomas 
                         Amaz{\^o}nia e o clima. Com isso verificou-se os potenciais 
                         impactos gerados pela mudan{\c{c}}a clim{\'a}tica regional nas 
                         propriedades do bioma Amaz{\^o}nia, como LAI e NPP, e na 
                         distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cobertura vegetal. As 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es mostraram que algumas {\'a}reas de floresta 
                         tropical na Amaz{\^o}nia foram substitu{\'{\i}}das por 
                         coberturas de vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o do tipo floresta 
                         dec{\'{\i}}dua e pastagem no cen{\'a}rio RCP4.5 e apenas por 
                         pastagem no cen{\'a}rio RCP8.5 no final deste s{\'e}culo. O 
                         modelo indica uma redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cerca de 9\% da 
                         {\'a}rea de floresta tropical no cen{\'a}rio RCP4.5 e uma 
                         redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o ainda maior no cen{\'a}rio RCP8.5 de cerca de 
                         50\% na regi{\~a}o leste da Amaz{\^o}nia. Embora o aumento da 
                         concentra{\c{c}}{\~a}o de CO\$_{2}\$ atmosf{\'e}rico possa 
                         favorecer o crescimento das {\'a}rvores, as proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         de Eta-HadGEM2-ES mostraram aumento de temperatura e 
                         redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o na regi{\~a}o 
                         amaz{\^o}nica, o que causou a degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal 
                         nestas simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es. As mudan{\c{c}}as no LAI e na NPP 
                         projetadas pelo modelo InLand indicam uma redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o na 
                         quantidade de CO\$_{2}\$ absorvida pela vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o na 
                         parte leste e sul da regi{\~a}o norte do Brasil. ABSTRACT: The 
                         IPCC scenarios indicate, in the coming decades, strong changes in 
                         the global environment, given the increased atmospheric 
                         concentration of CO\$_{2}\$ and other greenhouse gases arising 
                         from human activities. Despite the reduction in deforestation rate 
                         in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause 
                         changes in the composition, structure and distribution of 
                         ecosystems across the planet. Thus, the interactions between 
                         climate and vegetation must be well understood in studies of 
                         climate change. The dynamic vegetation models seek to represent 
                         changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical 
                         processes in the face of climate change. The objective of this 
                         work was to investigate the possible changes on the major 
                         Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under two climate change 
                         scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. An asynchronous coupling between Eta 
                         model and InLand dynamic vegetation model was applied to examine 
                         the likely consequences of simulated impacts of regional climate 
                         change on vegetation properties such as LAI and NPP and vegetation 
                         distribution in terms of major vegetation types. The projections 
                         show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are 
                         replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario 
                         and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this 
                         century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9\% in 
                         the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further 
                         reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50\% in the eastern 
                         region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO\$_{2}\$ 
                         atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the 
                         projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and 
                         reduction of rainfall in Amazon region, which caused the forest 
                         degradation in these simulations. Changes in LAI and NPP designed 
                         by Inland model indicate a reduction in the amount of CO\$_{2}\$ 
                         absorbed by vegetation in the eastern and southern part of the 
                         northern region of Brazil.",
            committee = "Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s (presidente) and Chan, Chou Sin 
                         (orientador) and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de (orientador) and 
                         Candido, Luiz Antonio and Correia, Francis Wagner Silva",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
         englishtitle = "A vulnerability study of Amazon biome to climate projections",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "181",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3K3ATEL",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3K3ATEL",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "03 dez. 2020"
}


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