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@Article{FreireFreiCoel:2015:CaMoRe,
               author = "Freire, Julliana Larise Mendon{\c{c}}a and Freitas, Saulo Ribeiro 
                         de and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Calibra{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo regional BRAMS para a 
                         previs{\~a}o de eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos",
              journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
                 year = "2015",
               volume = "30",
               number = "2",
                pages = "158--170",
                month = "jun.",
             keywords = "Downscaling, ENOS, previs{\~a}o sazonal, Downscaling, ENSO, 
                         seasonal climate predictions.",
             abstract = "As previs{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas sazonais t{\^e}m 
                         contribu{\'{\i}}do efetivamente para o planejamento de 
                         atividades de diversos setores da sociedade, tais como, energia, 
                         agricultura e sa{\'u}de. A necessidade de um maior detalhamento 
                         das previs{\~o}es, atrav{\'e}s da diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o da 
                         escala espacial da informa{\c{c}}{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica, tem 
                         concentrado nos {\'u}ltimos anos esfor{\c{c}}os 
                         cient{\'{\i}}ficos em v{\'a}rias regi{\~o}es do globo. A 
                         aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o da t{\'e}cnica de redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         escala atrav{\'e}s da modelagem din{\^a}mica regional, conhecida 
                         como downscaling din{\^a}mico, vem sendo utilizada com esse 
                         objetivo. Desta forma, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo 
                         calibrar e avaliar o modelo regional BRAMS, aninhado 
                         unidirecionalmente ao modelo global MCGA/CPTEC, em prever os 
                         eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos de 1983 (El Niņo) e 1989 (La 
                         Niņa) sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul (AS), para o trimestre 
                         mar{\c{c}}o-abril-maio (MAM). As previs{\~o}es com o BRAMS foram 
                         produzidas na resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial de 30 km, tendo como 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de contorno a temperatura da 
                         superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar persistida e a umidade do solo 
                         climatol{\'o}gica. Ap{\'o}s o processo de 
                         calibra{\c{c}}{\~a}o, o modelo BRAMS conseguiu capturar o 
                         padr{\~a}o de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o associada aos eventos 
                         clim{\'a}ticos extremos, como a redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o (aumento) da 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o principalmente no leste da regi{\~a}o 
                         Norte e Nordeste do Brasil e o aumento (redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o) de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o na regi{\~a}o Sul para o ano e 1983 
                         (1989). ABSTRACT: The seasonal climate predictions have 
                         effectively contributed to the planning on various sectors of 
                         society, such as energy, agriculture and health activities. The 
                         need for more detailed forecasts by increasing spatial resolution 
                         climate information has concentrated research efforts recently in 
                         various regions of the globe. Downscaling technique by regional 
                         dynamic modeling, known as dynamic downscaling, has been used for 
                         this purpose. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate and 
                         calibrate the regional BRAMS model, unidirectionally nested with 
                         AGCM/CPTEC global model, in predicting the extreme weather events 
                         of 1983 (El Niņo) and 1989 (La Niņa) over South America (SA) for 
                         March-April-May (MAM). The predictions were produced at spatial 
                         resolution of 30 km, having the persisted sea surface temperature 
                         and climatological soil moisture as boundary conditions. After the 
                         calibration process, the BRAMS was able to capture the rainfall 
                         pattern associated with extreme weather events, such as the 
                         decrease (increase) in precipitation pattern mainly on the eastern 
                         of North region and Northeast Brazil, and the increase (decrease) 
                         of rainfall in the Southern region for the year 1983 (1989).",
                  doi = "10.1590/0102-778620140034",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620140034",
                 issn = "0102-7786",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "freire_calibracao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "26 nov. 2020"
}


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