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@InProceedings{MarengoOrsiniANSHGACHT:2015:EsInAn,
               author = "Marengo Orsini, Jos{\'e} Antonio Marengo and Alves, Lincoln Muniz 
                         and Nunes, Luci H. and Souza, Celia R. de Gouveia and Harari, 
                         Joseph and Greco, Roberto and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e 
                         Cruz de and Chan, Chou Sin and Hosokawa, Eduardo K. and Tabuchi, 
                         Ernesto K.",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {} and {} and {} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Projeto metr{\'o}pole: uma estrutura integrada para analisar a 
                         vulnerabilidade e a capacidade adaptativa {\`a}s mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas e eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do n{\'{\i}}vel do mar de 
                         comunidades no Brasil, Reino Unido e Estados Unidos",
            booktitle = "P{\^o}steres",
                 year = "2015",
         organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Internacional de Climatologia, 6. (SIC)",
             keywords = "Eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do N{\'{\i}}vel do Mar, Mudan{\c{c}}a 
                         Clim{\'a}tica, Extremos clim{\'a}ticos, regi{\~o}es costeiras, 
                         adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o, Sea level rise, climate change, climate 
                         extremes, coastal regions, adaptation.",
             abstract = "As zonas costeiras de todo o planeta, por seu car{\'a}ter de 
                         intera{\c{c}}{\~a}o complexa entre processos atmosf{\'e}ricos, 
                         marinhos e terrestres, s{\~a}o normalmente as {\'a}reas mais 
                         afetadas pelas mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas e seus efeitos. 
                         Diante do grande potencial para impactos ambientais decorrentes 
                         dessas mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas em curso e suas 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras (aumento na frequ{\^e}ncia, 
                         intensidade e magnitude de eventos extremos), {\'e} cada vez mais 
                         premente analisar como os indiv{\'{\i}}duos em diferentes 
                         espa{\c{c}}os urbanos e situa{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         socioecon{\^o}micas diversas est{\~a}o expostos e s{\~a}o 
                         vulner{\'a}veis aos perigos e riscos em variados graus de 
                         intensidade. Neste contexto, {\'e} extremamente importante 
                         aprimorar e criar novas ferramentas que permitam 
                         avalia{\c{c}}{\~o}es detalhadas desses impactos e 
                         forne{\c{c}}am bases cient{\'{\i}}ficas para tomadores de 
                         decis{\~a}o, implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o de pol{\'{\i}}ticas 
                         p{\'u}blicas e a gest{\~a}o integrada da zona costeira. O 
                         desenvolvimento dessas ferramentas remete {\`a} abordagem inter e 
                         multidisciplinar, que pode ser constru{\'{\i}}da por meio de 
                         indicadores que possibilitem facilitar mudan{\c{c}}as na 
                         percep{\c{c}}{\~a}o, no entendimento, nas atitudes, nos valores 
                         e nas tomadas de decis{\~a}o sobre os riscos clim{\'a}ticos 
                         locais, bem como nas estrat{\'e}gias de mitiga{\c{c}}{\~a}o e 
                         adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o a serem adotadas pelos gestores 
                         p{\'u}blicos, comunidades e organiza{\c{c}}{\~o}es sociais. O 
                         Projeto METR{\'O}POLE (derivado do F{\'o}rum Belmont), 
                         desenvolvido em parceria entre Brasil, Estados Unidos (EUA) e 
                         Reino Unido (RU), foi concebido nesse contexto. A hip{\'o}tese do 
                         projeto {\'e} de que a percep{\c{c}}{\~a}o e o entendimento do 
                         risco das mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas podem ser mais bem 
                         assimilados quando produzidos com bases cient{\'{\i}}ficas 
                         integradas a um contexto social, pol{\'{\i}}tico e cultural 
                         local co-participativo. Neste sentido, est{\~a}o sendo elaboradas 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es computacionais (modelagens) de 
                         cen{\'a}rios futuros baseados em s{\'e}ries hist{\'o}ricas de 
                         dados sobre oscila{\c{c}}{\~o}es do n{\'{\i}}vel do mar, 
                         temperatura e frequ{\^e}ncia de eventos extremos (ressacas do mar 
                         e mar{\'e}s altas), al{\'e}m de proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         clim{\'a}ticas de alta resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o segundo os 
                         cen{\'a}rios propostos pelo IPCC. As modelagens incluem 
                         tamb{\'e}m diversos dados socioecon{\^o}micos na escala 
                         municipal e ferramentas de visualiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial das 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es de eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do n{\'{\i}}vel do 
                         mar, risco econ{\^o}mico associado e vulnerabilidade de pessoas e 
                         bens, para cen{\'a}rios em 2025, 2050, 2075 e 2100. Os resultados 
                         e algumas a{\c{c}}{\~o}es adaptativas est{\~a}o sendo 
                         submetidos {\`a}s comunidades locais (Santos no Brasil, Broward 
                         County-Florida nos EUA e Selsey no RU), por meio da 
                         aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o de question{\'a}rios, em workshops com 
                         ampla participa{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos diversos atores sociais 
                         envolvidos. A parceria estabelecida com as prefeituras municipais 
                         facilitar{\'a} a internaliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos resultados e a 
                         implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o de novas pol{\'{\i}}ticas 
                         p{\'u}blicas e legisla{\c{c}}{\~o}es ambientais mais adequadas, 
                         permitindo melhor gest{\~a}o da zona costeira. ABSTRACT: The 
                         coastal areas around the world are likely to be among the most 
                         affected by climate change and its impacts due to a complex 
                         interplay among atmospheric, marine and terrestrial processes, as 
                         well to local exposure of coastal areas in terms in infrastructure 
                         and occupation. . These regions face significant environmental and 
                         socio-economic impacts that are already experiencing extreme 
                         events and from climate change in the future (frequency of intense 
                         storms events and along with sea level rise lead to more coastal 
                         flooding). It is important to understand that communities in 
                         different urban areas in coastal regions and from different 
                         socio-economic activities face different levels of risk and 
                         vulnerability. In this context, it is extremely important to 
                         improve and create tools that allow stakeholders to access 
                         reliable science-based information to help them respond to the 
                         risks of climate change impacts, and to assess opportunities for 
                         adaptation in coastal areas. In general, the development of these 
                         tools require the use of a cross-cutting interdisciplinary 
                         scientific approach, which can be built through indicators that 
                         can allow easy changes in perception, understanding, attitudes, 
                         values and make decisions at the local level, as well as 
                         adaptation strategies to helps policy makers, communities and NGOs 
                         to cope with sea level rise. The METROPOLE project (funded by the 
                         BELMONT Forum) represents a partnership between Brazil, UK and USA 
                         to investigate impacts of sea level rise and climate change in 
                         some three coastal regions around the world. The hypothesis of the 
                         project is that risk knowledge is best understood as being 
                         co-produced by science and by the social, political and cultural 
                         context. The research team will develop downscaled climate models 
                         and sea level rise increase scenarios for communities in Brazil 
                         (Santos-SP), the United Kingdom (Selsey-West Sussex), and the 
                         United States (Broward County-Florida) and engage stakeholders and 
                         policymakers in participatory planning meetings, to analyze the 
                         social and cultural factors that impact decision making and 
                         regional adaptive capacity. For each site, we will co-produce 
                         scenarios using state-of-the-art visualization tools developed in 
                         Brazil and the US to sea level rise and impacts on coastal 
                         infrastructure. Data include changes in sea level, temperature, 
                         storm frequency, precipitation and other variables in the past 100 
                         years and high resolution (10km) projections under the IPCCs 5th 
                         AR scenarios. The tools integrate scientific and economic data for 
                         the smallest local area, and illustrate potential impacts on 
                         infrastructure, health, economic risk, adaptation options, and 
                         cost-benefit analyses over time. The partnership with the 
                         municipal governments will facilitate the internalization of the 
                         results and the implementation of public policies and appropriate 
                         environmental legislation and allowing the municipals to better 
                         manage their coastal areas.",
  conference-location = "Natal, RN",
      conference-year = "13-16 out.",
           targetfile = "1_marengo.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "05 dez. 2020"
}


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