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@MastersThesis{Santos:2016:AvDeMo,
               author = "Santos, Luiz Fernando dos",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o da destreza do modelo de 
                         circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o geral do CPTEC em prever o in{\'{\i}}cio 
                         e o fim da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa na regi{\~a}o Centro-Oeste 
                         do Brasil",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2016",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2016-02-25",
             keywords = "mon{\c{c}}{\~a}o, esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa, modelo, 
                         previs{\~a}o sazonal, monsoon, rainy season, model, seasonal 
                         forecast.",
             abstract = "O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a destreza do Modelo 
                         Global do Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos 
                         Clim{\'a}ticos em identificar as datas de in{\'{\i}}cio e fim 
                         da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa sobre a regi{\~a}o Centro-Oeste do 
                         Brasil. Foi gerado um conjunto de 15 membros de previs{\~o}es 
                         clim{\'a}ticas sazonais retrospectivas da vers{\~a}o 3.0 do 
                         modelo para 15 esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es chuvosas (2000/2001 a 
                         2014/2015). As previs{\~o}es foram rodadas com as 
                         condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais dos meses de abril a julho, 
                         temperatura da superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar (TSM) persistidas dos 
                         meses de junho a agosto, para os trimestres de 
                         agosto/setembro/outubro, setembro/outubro/novembro e 
                         outubro/novembro/dezembro, respectivamente, para prever o 
                         in{\'{\i}}cio da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa. E as rodadas de 
                         setembro a novembro, com TSM persistida de novembro a janeiro, 
                         referentes ao trimestre de janeiro/fevereiro/mar{\c{c}}o, 
                         fevereiro/mar{\c{c}}o/abril e mar{\c{c}}o/abril/maio, 
                         respectivamente, para prever o fim. Esse conjunto de dados foi 
                         analisado e comparado com os dados do \emph{Climate Data Record e 
                         do Climate Prediction Center, ambos do National Oceanic and 
                         Atmospheric Administration}, e do Climate Forecast System 
                         Reanalysis do \emph{National Centers for Environmental 
                         Prediction}. O primeiro possui uma resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial 
                         de 1\$^{°}\$ de latitude e longitude, enquanto que os dois 
                         {\'u}ltimos apresentam resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 0,5\$^{°}\$ de 
                         latitude e de longitude. A identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o das datas de 
                         in{\'{\i}}cio e fim da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa sobre a 
                         regi{\~a}o foi baseada em sete {\'{\i}}ndices que representam o 
                         comportamento atmosf{\'e}rico da regi{\~a}o 
                         caracter{\'{\i}}stico de um regime de mon{\c{c}}{\~a}o. As 
                         vari{\'a}veis-base desses {\'{\i}}ndices foram: vento e 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o (GAN et al., 2004, 2006); transporte de 
                         umidade (RAIA; CAVALCANTI, 2008); radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de onda 
                         longa (GARCIA; KAYANO, 2009, 2013); e {\'a}gua precipit{\'a}vel 
                         (NEVES et al., 2013). Ap{\'o}s a identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o das 
                         datas para cada membro foram calculadas as datas m{\'e}dias e os 
                         desvios-padr{\~a}o de cada {\'{\i}}ndice. Al{\'e}m disso, as 
                         previs{\~o}es sazonais das esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 2011/2012 a 
                         2014/2015 foram comparadas com as previs{\~o}es da vers{\~a}o 
                         operacional do modelo. O modelo representou relativamente bem o 
                         in{\'{\i}}cio e fim da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa no 
                         Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Os {\'{\i}}ndices que melhor 
                         representaram a esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa foram o ICVZ, INAP e 
                         ROLANT. A previs{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica sazonal de agosto 
                         (fevereiro) mostrou maior destreza em identificar o 
                         in{\'{\i}}cio (fim) da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa na 
                         regi{\~a}o de estudo. Nas compara{\c{c}}{\~o}es entre as datas 
                         entre os dados da vers{\~a}o 3.0 e operacional do modelo, a 
                         vers{\~a}o 3.0 apresentou datas mais pr{\'o}ximas ao encontrado 
                         pelo {\'{\i}}ndice de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o para a maioria 
                         dos {\'{\i}}ndices, por{\'e}m uma s{\'e}rie maior de 
                         esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es chuvosas e outros par{\^a}metros devem ser 
                         analisados. ABSTRACT: This study aims to evaluate the skill of the 
                         Global Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Center Model to 
                         identify the onset and the demise of the rainy season on the 
                         Western-Central Brazil. It had generated a ensemble of 15 members 
                         of retrospective seasonal climate forecasts version 3.0 model for 
                         15 rainy seasons (2000/2001 to 2014/2015), The forecasts were 
                         integrated with the initial conditions from April to July, the 
                         persisted sea surface temperature (SST) from June to August, for 
                         the quarter August/September/October, September/October/November 
                         and October/November/December, respectively, to predict the onset 
                         of the rainy season; and the initial conditions from September to 
                         November, with SST persisted from November to January for the 
                         quarter January/February/March, February/March/April and 
                         March/April/May, respectively, to predict the demise. This data 
                         set was analyzed and compared with data from the Climate Data 
                         Record and the Climate Prediction Center, both from the National 
                         Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Climate Forecast 
                         System Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental 
                         Prediction. The first has a spatial resolution of 1\$^{°}\$ of 
                         latitude and longitude, and the last two have resolution of 
                         0.5\$^{°}\$ of latitude and longitude. The onset and the demise 
                         of the rainy season over the region were based on seven indices 
                         and they represent the atmospheric behavior of the characteristic 
                         region of a monsoon regime. The base variables of the indices: 
                         wind and precipitation (GAN et al, 2004, 2006.); moisture 
                         transport (RAIA; CAVALCANTI, 2008); outgoing longwave radiation 
                         (GARCIA; KAYANO, 2009, 2013); and precipitable water (NEVES et 
                         al., 2013). Also were calculated the mean dates and standard 
                         deviation of the dates found from each index. In addition, the 
                         seasonal forecasts of the 2011/2012 to 2014/2015 were compared 
                         with the forecast of the operational version model. The model 
                         represented fairly well the onset and demise of the rainy season 
                         in the Western-Central Brazil. The indices that best represented 
                         the rainy season were the ICVZ, INAP and ROLANT. The seasonal 
                         climate prediction of August (February) showed greater skill in 
                         identifying the onset (demise) of the rainy season in the study 
                         area. In the comparisons between the dates between version 3.0 and 
                         operational version model, version 3.0 presented earlier dates 
                         found by the rainfall index for most indices, but a larger number 
                         of rainy seasons and other parameters should be analyzed.",
            committee = "Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes (presidente) and Gan, Manoel Alonso 
                         (orientador) and Silva, Adma Raia",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
         englishtitle = "Evaluation of CPTEC general circulation model’s skill in 
                         predicting the onset and the demise of the rainy season in the 
                         Western-Central Brazil",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "155",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3L4KE9H",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3L4KE9H",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 nov. 2020"
}


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