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@PhDThesis{Alves:2016:ClPrPr,
               author = "Alves, Lincoln Muniz",
                title = "An{\'a}lise estat{\'{\i}}stica da sazonalidade e 
                         tend{\^e}ncias das esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es chuvosas e seca na 
                         Amaz{\^o}nia: clima presente e proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2016",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2016-04-25",
             keywords = "modelo clim{\'a}tico regional, climatologia, Amaz{\^o}nia, 
                         meteorologia tropical, mudan{\c{c}}a clim{\'a}tica, regional 
                         climate modeling, climatology, Amazon, tropical meteorology, 
                         climate change.",
             abstract = "Um dos poss{\'{\i}}veis grandes impactos na regi{\~a}o 
                         Amaz{\^o}nica da mudan{\c{c}}a clim{\'a}tica seriam 
                         poss{\'{\i}}veis altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es na esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         chuvosa e seca em termos da dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o (in{\'{\i}}cio e 
                         fim da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o), intensidade e variabilidade 
                         espa{\c{c}}o-temporal. Este comportamento pode afetar a 
                         estrutura, composi{\c{c}}{\~a}o e funcionamento do ecossistema 
                         assim como a hidrologia da regi{\~a}o. Logo, os objetivos deste 
                         trabalho s{\~a}o descrever e compreender essas poss{\'{\i}}veis 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as no clima presente e tend{\^e}ncias de longo 
                         prazo, e investigar: (a) a variabilidade clim{\'a}tica da 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o num cen{\'a}rio futuro de 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas a partir das proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         clim{\'a}ticas regionais; e (b) analisar a resposta do clima da 
                         Amaz{\^o}nia {\`a} mudan{\c{c}}a da vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o a 
                         partir de cen{\'a}rios de desmatamento. Para atingir esses 
                         objetivos, foi analisada a s{\'e}rie de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         observada no per{\'{\i}}odo de 1979 a 2014, e tamb{\'e}m as 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas geradas com o modelo 
                         clim{\'a}tico regional HadRM3P aninhado a um subconjunto de 
                         quatro simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo global HadCM3 obtidas pelo 
                         m{\'e}todo Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPEs) no cen{\'a}rio de 
                         emiss{\~o}es A1B. Foram tamb{\'e}m realizadas 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo regional, no per{\'{\i}}odo de 
                         1961-2010, com a implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cen{\'a}rios de 
                         desmatamento. De maneira geral, os resultados ressaltaram: (a) os 
                         sinais de varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es observadas na variabilidade da 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o nas {\'u}ltimas d{\'e}cadas, em 
                         particular redu{\c{c}}{\~o}es sistem{\'a}ticas nos totais 
                         acumulados de chuva, tend{\^e}ncia de diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o da 
                         dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa (-0,23 
                         p{\^e}ntada/ano) e aumento na dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o da 
                         esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o seca (0,21 p{\^e}ntada/ano) sobre o sul da 
                         Amaz{\^o}nia (SAMZ); (b) os potenciais impactos das 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas s{\~a}o redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre grande parte do nordeste da 
                         Amaz{\^o}nia para todas as esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es do ano e 
                         m{\'e}dia anual, enquanto no sul projeta-se aumento durante o 
                         ver{\~a}o e redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o nas esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 
                         inverno e primavera; (c) al{\'e}m disso, as proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         indicam uma tend{\^e}ncia de aumento dos eventos extremos de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, tanto chuvosos quanto secos; e (d) as 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo com desflorestamento mostraram 
                         impactos no clima regional atrav{\'e}s de circula{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         de mesoescala induzidas pelas heterogeneidades da paisagem (brisas 
                         de vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o). Em particular, as 
                         altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticas se revelam como aumento nos 
                         valores dos campos m{\'e}dios de temperatura do ar, raz{\~a}o de 
                         Bowen (redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o do fluxo de calor sens{\'{\i}}vel e 
                         aumento de calor latente), magnitude dos fluxos de umidade e 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, principalmente, sobre as {\'a}reas 
                         desflorestadas, indicando que o desflorestamento tem uma 
                         contribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o importante na gera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         microclimas e na variabilidade do clima regional, embora os 
                         efeitos variem espacial e temporalmente. Nota-se, tamb{\'e}m, uma 
                         diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos eventos chuvosos e um aumento na 
                         frequ{\^e}ncia de eventos secos na categoria extremos e muito 
                         extremos. Por fim, o estudo tem repercuss{\~o}es na 
                         biodiversidade, agricultura, recursos h{\'{\i}}dricos e, 
                         portanto, com implica{\c{c}}{\~o}es ambientais e 
                         socioecon{\^o}micas significativas. ABSTRACT: One of the major 
                         impacts in the Amazon region of climate change would be possible 
                         changes in the rainy and dry seasons in terms of duration (onset 
                         and demise), intensity and spatial and temporal rainfall 
                         variability. These changes may have impacts on forest composition, 
                         structure, and function as well as the water resources in Amazon 
                         basin. Therefore, the aim of this study is: to assess the possible 
                         changes in the present-day climate and long-term trends in 
                         seasonal rainfall; to identify possible future climate changes 
                         across Amaz{\^o}nia using regional climate dynamic downscaling; 
                         and to evaluate the impact of land surface changes on the climate 
                         of Amazon basin, particularly on the seasonal rainfall 
                         variability. To achieve these goals, we analyzed the observed 
                         rainfall data in the period 1979-2014, climate projections 
                         generated by regional climate model HadRM3P, nested in a subset of 
                         four HadCM3 global model simulations which are obtained by 
                         Perturbed Physics Ensembles method (PPEs) in A1B emission 
                         scenario. The regional model simulations were carried out in the 
                         period 1961-2010, with the implementation of deforestation 
                         scenarios in the HadRM3P. Our results highlights: (a) the signs of 
                         observed changes in the variability of precipitation in recent 
                         decades, in particular systematic reductions in rainfall 
                         accumulation, decrease the length of wet season rainfall (-0.23 
                         pentad/year) and increase the duration of the dry season (0.21 
                         pentad/year) over southern Amazon (SAMZ); (b) the potential 
                         impacts of climate change are reducing rainfall over great part of 
                         the northeast Amazon for all seasons and also annual mean, while 
                         in the southern Amazon it is projected to rainfall increase during 
                         the summer and reduction in winter and spring season. Furthermore, 
                         there is a tendency to increase the extreme rainfall events, such 
                         as extreme flood and drought; and (c) the model simulations showed 
                         deforestation impacts on regional climate through the mesoscale 
                         circulation (known as vegetation-breeze) induced by juxtaposition 
                         of deforested and forested lands. In a broader context, the 
                         regional impacts of deforestation are air temperature, Bowen ratio 
                         (reduction of sensible heat flux and increasing latent heat), the 
                         vertical integrated moisture transport and precipitation increase 
                         mainly over deforestation areas which indicating that 
                         deforestation has an important contribution on the generation of 
                         microclimate and regional climate variability, although the 
                         impacts can vary across spatial and temporal scales. Besides, a 
                         reduction of extreme wet events and an increase in frequency of 
                         extremes and very extremes dry events. Finally, the study has an 
                         impact on biodiversity, agriculture, water resources and therefore 
                         with significant environmental and socioeconomic implications.",
            committee = "Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de (presidente) and Orsini, Jos{\'e} 
                         Ant{\^o}nio Marengo (orientador) and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo 
                         Oliveira e Cruz de and Ambrizzi, T{\'e}rcio and C{\^a}ndido, 
                         Luiz Ant{\^o}nio",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
         englishtitle = "Statistical analysis of seasonality and trends in rainy and dry 
                         season in the Amazon: present climate and future projections",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "166",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3L9KTPH",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3L9KTPH",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 nov. 2020"
}


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