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@Article{SilvaFreiDutrMole:2016:AsRiBo,
               author = "Silva, Ana Elisa Pereira and Freitas, Corina da Costa and Dutra, 
                         Luciano Vieira and Molento, Marcelo Beltr{\~a}o",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN_} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Paran{\'a} (UFPR)}",
                title = "Assessing the risk of bovine fasciolosis using linear regression 
                         analysis for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil",
              journal = "Veterinary Parasitology",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "217",
                pages = "7--13",
                month = "Feb.",
             keywords = "Paccuracy, altitude, Article, Brazil, cattle disease, climate, 
                         environmental factor, Fasciola hepatica, fascioliasis, infection 
                         risk, nonhuman, temperature sensitivity, winter.",
             abstract = "Fasciola hepatica is the causative agent of fasciolosis, a disease 
                         that triggers a chronic inflammatory process in the liver 
                         affecting mainly ruminants and other animals including humans. In 
                         Brazil, F. hepatica occurs in larger numbers in the most Southern 
                         state of Rio Grande do Sul. The objective of this study was to 
                         estimate areas at risk using an eight-year (2002-2010) time series 
                         of climatic and environmental variables that best relate to the 
                         disease using a linear regression method to municipalities in the 
                         state of Rio Grande do Sul. The positivity index of the disease, 
                         which is the rate of infected animal per slaughtered animal, was 
                         divided into three risk classes: low, medium and high. The 
                         accuracy of the known sample classification on the confusion 
                         matrix for the low, medium and high rates produced by the 
                         estimated model presented values between 39 and 88% depending of 
                         the year. The regression analysis showed the importance of the 
                         time-based data for the construction of the model, considering the 
                         two variables of the previous year of the event (positivity index 
                         and maximum temperature). The generated data is important for 
                         epidemiological and parasite control studies mainly because F. 
                         hepatica is an infection that can last from months to years.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.vetpar.2015.12.021",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vetpar.2015.12.021",
                 issn = "0304-4017",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "silva_assessing.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "25 nov. 2020"
}


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