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@Article{AguiarVADTSBCSANO:2016:AnFoTr,
               author = "Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra and Vieira, Ima C{\'e}lia Guimar{\~a}es 
                         and Assis, Talita Oliveira and Dalla Nora, El{\'o}i Lennon and 
                         Toledo, Peter Mann de and Santos J{\'u}nior, Roberto Ara{\'u}jo 
                         Oliveira and Batistella, Mateus and Coelho, Andrea Santos and 
                         Savaget, Elza Kawakami and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e 
                         Cruz de and Nobre, Carlos Afonso and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry 
                         Balbaud",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Museu 
                         Paraense Em{\'{\i}}lio Goeldi (MPEG)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Estadual 
                         de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Coordena{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         Aperfei{\c{c}}oamento de Pessoal de N{\'{\i}}vel Superio 
                         (CAPES)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Land use change emission scenarios: Anticipating a forest 
                         transition process in the Brazilian Amazon",
              journal = "Global Change Biology",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "22",
               number = "5",
                pages = "1821--1840",
                month = "May",
             keywords = "Brazilian Amazon, CO2 emissions, Deforestation, Forest 
                         degradation, Forest transition, Scenarios, Secondary vegetation, 
                         Sustainability.",
             abstract = "Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 
                         1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased 
                         significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km2 yr-1 in the 
                         last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, 
                         including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective 
                         monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. 
                         Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly 
                         expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale 
                         transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak 
                         institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and 
                         quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, 
                         including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we 
                         envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental 
                         achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially 
                         explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative 
                         pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation 
                         dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the 
                         computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon 
                         emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a 
                         sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation 
                         (~1000 km2 yr-1) and a change in the current dynamics of the 
                         secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, 
                         our results also show that the continuation of the current 
                         situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life 
                         cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a 
                         source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is 
                         covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth 
                         forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission 
                         corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 
                         2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate 
                         effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset 
                         these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest 
                         degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will 
                         play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.",
                  doi = "10.1111/gcb.13134",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13134",
                 issn = "1354-1013",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "aguiar_land.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "23 nov. 2020"
}


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