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@InProceedings{MarengoOrsiniNunAlvSouHar:2016:InFrAn,
               author = "Marengo Orsini, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Nunes, Luci and Alves, 
                         Lincoln Muniz and Souza, Celia Gouveia and Harari, Jos{\'e}",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         de Geologia} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)}",
                title = "An integrated framework to analyse vulnerability and adaptive 
                         capacity to sea level rise in Brazil",
                 year = "2016",
         organization = "Adaptation Futures: Practices and Solutions: International Climate 
                         Change Adaptation Conference, 4.",
             abstract = "Research question: Coastal zones face significant environmental 
                         and socio-economic impacts that is already experiencing extreme 
                         events. Increased frequency of intense storms events and along 
                         with the rise in sea level, lo leads to more coastal flooding. It 
                         is extremely important to improve and create tools that allow 
                         stakeholders to access reliable science-based information to help 
                         them respond to the risks of climate change and sea level raise 
                         impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation in coastal areas. 
                         Methodology: The location for Brazil is the city of Santos, which 
                         is the main port of Brazil. The METROPOLE project is funded by 
                         BELMONT Forum. The hypothesis of the project is that risk 
                         knowledge is best understood as being co-produced by science and 
                         by the social, political and cultural context, engaging 
                         stakeholders and policymakers in participatory planning meetings 
                         to analyse the social and cultural factors that impact 
                         decision-making and regional adaptive capacity. The COastal 
                         Adaptation to Sea level rise Tool (COAST) is software that models 
                         flooding damage to assets from storm surge and sea level rise over 
                         time. It can calculate one-time damages from a single event in 
                         time; as well as cumulative damage from all possible storms over a 
                         given time period. It then is used to calculate the benefits and 
                         costs from various adaptation strategies to determine which 
                         strategy is the most fiscal economically efficient over time. A 
                         one hundred year storm surge is the height of water with a 
                         probability of 0.01. Findings: For Southeast Zone, the damages 
                         from storm surge increase greatly from an SLR of 18 cm to 45 cm, 
                         and even more for the 1.00 m. with SLR between 18 and 30 cm 
                         damages by 2050 are concentrated along the Ponta da Praia 
                         neighbourhood. By 2100, Between 30 cm and 1 m the damaged area 
                         extends along the coast extending the flooding and storm surges 
                         few blocks away from the coast. By 2100, for 1 m SLR, if action is 
                         not taken, several areas in Ponta da Praia would be lost due to 
                         permanent inundation by SLR. For the Northeast Zone, large areas 
                         with high tides due to SLR in the section along the main canal 
                         with SLR of 18 to 30 cm, covering a large region and a SLR of 1 m 
                         the area flooded can extend until the over most of the region. The 
                         estimated damages concentrate mainly along the canal and along the 
                         coastal line, with the damages more concentrated (building lost 
                         due to flood) mainly in the Sao Manoel region. The cumulative 
                         damages shows higher losses for the Southeast zone of Santos, with 
                         cumulative losses of \$R 1.7 billion with a SLR of 1 m between 
                         2010 and 2100, while the Northwest zone shows losses of \$R 550 
                         million. Significance for practical solutions: We show the results 
                         of the applications of COAST in Santos, assuming various sea level 
                         rise levels until 2100. The partnership with the municipal 
                         governments will facilitate the internalization of the results and 
                         the implementation of public policies and appropriate 
                         environmental legislation and allowing the municipals to better 
                         manage their coastal areas.",
  conference-location = "Rotterdam",
      conference-year = "10-13 May",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "04 dez. 2020"
}


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