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@PhDThesis{Bezerra:2016:CoFaSo,
               author = "Bezerra, Francisco Gilney Silva",
                title = "Contribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de fatores socioecon{\^o}micos, 
                         biof{\'{\i}}sicos e da agropecu{\'a}ria {\`a} 
                         degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o da cobertura vegetal como “proxy” da 
                         desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o no Semi{\'a}rido do Nordeste do 
                         Brasil",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2016",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2016-05-25",
             keywords = "desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o, estat{\'{\i}}stica multivariada, 
                         {\'{\i}}ndice de vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o, modelagem de uso e 
                         cobertura da terra, pecu{\'a}ria, semi{\'a}rido, 
                         desertification, multivariate statistics, vegetation index, land 
                         use and cover model, livestock, semiarid region.",
             abstract = "A desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\'e} um problema de escala global 
                         que aflige, principalmente e diretamente, o desenvolvimento das 
                         regi{\~o}es secas do planeta. No semi{\'a}rido do Nordeste 
                         brasileiro, a explora{\c{c}}{\~a}o intensiva e abusiva dos 
                         recursos naturais, principalmente pela agropecu{\'a}ria, ao longo 
                         dos tempos, associada a caracter{\'{\i}}sticas ambientais e 
                         clim{\'a}ticas particulares e aspectos socioecon{\^o}micos 
                         limitantes, atuam como facilitadores do desencadeamento do 
                         processo de degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o/desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o. 
                         Neste sentido, acredita-se que o modelo de explora{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         dos recursos naturais por parte dos sistemas de 
                         produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o, em especial da pecu{\'a}ria, desenvolvido 
                         no Semi{\'a}rido do Nordeste do Brasil - SANEB pode ser 
                         considerado um fator preponderante para o aumento da 
                         suscetibilidade ao processo de 
                         degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o/desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Assim, o 
                         objetivo desse trabalho {\'e} analisar a din{\^a}mica da 
                         degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o vegetal nessa regi{\~a}o como 
                         \${''}\$proxy\${''}\$ de {\'a}reas com potencial para 
                         desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o, visando entender a rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         dessa din{\^a}mica com diferentes fatores ambientais e 
                         socioecon{\^o}micos, por meio da combina{\c{c}}{\~a}o de dados 
                         de sensoriamento (composi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de imagens 
                         multitemporais MODIS/TERRA do {\'{\i}}ndice de 
                         vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o EVI2 (\emph{Enhanced Vegetation Index} 2), 
                         m{\'e}todos quantitativos, em especial modelos de regress{\~a}o 
                         multivariada e modelos din{\^a}micos espacialmente 
                         expl{\'{\i}}citos. O estudo identificou as {\'a}reas com 
                         cobertura vegetal degradada como \${''}\$proxy\${''}\$ de 
                         {\'a}reas potencialmente em processo de 
                         degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o/desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o (APD), 
                         classificadas em tr{\^e}s categorias, segundo a din{\^a}mica da 
                         mudan{\c{c}}a da cobertura: a) {\'a}reas que em 2000 foram 
                         classificados como \${''}\${\'A}reas N{\~a}o Potencialmente em 
                         Processo de Degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o/Desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         (NAPD)\${''}\$ e passaram a ser consideradas APDs em 2010 (NAPD 
                         - APD); {\'a}reas que permaneceram como APDs em ambos os anos 
                         analisados (APD-APD); e c) {\'a}reas que migraram da categoria 
                         APD em 2000 para NAPD em 2010 (APD-NAPD). No per{\'{\i}}odo 
                         entre 2000 e 2010 houve um aumento de 23\% (26.222,7 
                         km\$^{2}\$) de APDs. Este aumento ocorreu principalmente nos 
                         Estados do Cear{\'a}, Piau{\'{\i}} e Bahia. A an{\'a}lise da 
                         mudan{\c{c}}a e de seus determinantes indicou que, no 
                         per{\'{\i}}odo analisado, os fatores \emph{instrumentos de 
                         planejamento e pol{\'{\i}}ticas p{\'u}blicas, estrutura 
                         agr{\'a}ria, ambientais e clim{\'a}ticos, tecnologia e 
                         utiliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o da terra} s{\~a}o os mais importantes para 
                         a determina{\c{c}}{\~a}o das mudan{\c{c}}as das APDs, sendo que 
                         aproximadamente 25\% da vari{\^a}ncia total s{\~a}o explicados 
                         pelas vari{\'a}veis percentual da {\'a}rea dos estabelecimentos 
                         agropecu{\'a}rios com 100 ha a mais, dist{\^a}ncia 
                         m{\'{\i}}nima aos n{\'u}cleos de desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o e 
                         efetivo total do rebanho caprino e ovino. Assim, os resultados 
                         confirmam a hip{\'o}tese de que o modelo de 
                         explora{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos recursos naturais tradicionalmente 
                         desenvolvido no semi{\'a}rido do Nordeste do Brasil, em especial 
                         a pecu{\'a}ria, pode ser considerado um fator decisivo para o 
                         aumento da suscetibilidade aos processos de degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         e desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o na regi{\~a}o. A modelagem 
                         estat{\'{\i}}stica e espacialmente explicita corroborou para o 
                         estabelecimento e entendimento dos fatores determinantes da 
                         mudan{\c{c}}a no SANEB, permitindo testar as rela{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         entre as vari{\'a}veis e as {\'a}reas em processo de 
                         desertifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o. ABSTRACT: Desertification is a global 
                         problem that afflicts primarily and directly the development of 
                         dry regions on the planet. In the Semiarid region of Northeast 
                         Brazil - SANEB, intensive and abusive exploitation of natural 
                         resources mainly by agriculture and livestock, over time 
                         associated with particular environmental and climatic 
                         characteristics and limiting socioeconomic aspects operates as 
                         triggering facilitators of the process of degradation / 
                         desertification. In this sense, it is believed that the model of 
                         exploitation of natural resources by the production systems, 
                         especially the livestock developed in the SANEB can be considered 
                         a preponderant factor to the increase of the susceptibility to 
                         degradation/desertification processes. The objective of this study 
                         is to analyze the dynamics of vegetation degradation in the region 
                         as a \${''}\$proxy\${''}\$ of areas with potential for 
                         desertification, in order to understand the relationship of this 
                         dynamic with different environmental and socioeconomic factors, by 
                         combining remote sensing data (compositions of multi-temporal 
                         MODIS / TERRA EVI2 images (Enhanced vegetation index 2), 
                         quantitative methods, especially multivariate regression models 
                         and spatially explicit dynamic models. This study identifies the 
                         areas with degraded vegetation cover as \${''}\$proxy\${''}\$ 
                         of areas potentially undergoing degradation / desertification 
                         (APD), classified into three categories, according to the dynamics 
                         of the coverage change: a) areas classified in 2000 as 
                         \${''}\$Areas not potentially in the Process of Degradation / 
                         Desertification (NAPD)\${''}\$ and considered APDs in 2010 (NAPD 
                         - APD); b) areas that remained APDs in both years (APD-APD); and 
                         c) areas who did migrate from APD category in 2000 to NAPD in 2010 
                         (APD-NAPD). In the decade analyzed there was an increase of 23\% 
                         (26,222.7 km\$^{2}\$) of APDs. This increase occurred mainly in 
                         the states of Cear{\'a}, Piau{\'{\i}} and Bahia. The analysis 
                         of the change and its determinants indicated that in the period 
                         analyzed, the \emph{planning instruments and public policy, 
                         agrarian structure, environmental and climatic, technology and 
                         land use} factors are the most important, with approximately 25\% 
                         of the total variance explained by the variable \emph{percentage 
                         of area of farms with 100 hectares and more, minimum distance to 
                         total desertification nuclei and effective total of the goat and 
                         sheep flock.} Thus, the results supports the hypothesis that the 
                         model of exploitation of natural resources traditionally developed 
                         in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil, particularly 
                         livestock, can be considered a decisive factor for the increased 
                         susceptibility to degradation and desertification in the region. 
                         Statistical and spatially explicit modeling did confirm the 
                         establishment and understanding of the determinants of change in 
                         SANEB, allowing the test of relationships between variables and 
                         areas in desertification process.",
            committee = "Giarolla, Ang{\'e}lica (presidente) and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra 
                         de (orientadora) and Alval{\'a}, Regina C{\'e}lia dos Santos 
                         (orientadora) and Arcoverde, Gustavo Felipe Balu{\'e} and Lima, 
                         Patr{\'{\i}}cia Ver{\^o}nica Pinheiro Sales and Sampaio, 
                         Everardo Valadares de S{\'a} Barreto",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
         englishtitle = "Contribution of socioeconomic, biophysics and agriculture factors 
                         to the degradation of vegetation cover as {"}proxy{"} of the 
                         desertification in the Semiarid region of Northeast Brazil",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "205",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3LLTPHL",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3LLTPHL",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 dez. 2020"
}


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