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@Article{CasagrandeNoSoMaToCaMe:2016:DeSiFu,
               author = "Casagrande, Fernanda and Nobre, Paulo and Souza, Ronaldo Buss de 
                         and Marquez, Andr{\'e} Lanfer and Tourigny, Etienne and 
                         Capistrano, Vinicius Buscioli and Mello, Raquel Leite",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Arctic sea ice: decadal simulations and future scenarios using 
                         BESM-OA",
              journal = "Atmospheric and Climate Sciences",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "6",
                pages = "351--366",
             keywords = "Arctic Sea Ice, Climate Models, Brazilian Earth System Model.",
             abstract = "Important international reports and a significant number of 
                         scientific publications have reported on the abrupt decline of 
                         Arctic sea ice and its impact on the Global Climate System. In 
                         this paper, we evaluated the ability of the newly implemented 
                         Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA) to represent Arctic sea ice 
                         and sensitivity to CO2 forcing, using decadal simulations 
                         (1980-2012) and future scenarios (2006-2100). We validated our 
                         results with satellite observations and compared them to Coupled 
                         Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the same 
                         numerical experiment. BESM results for the seasonal cycle are 
                         consistent with CMIP5 models and observations. However, almost all 
                         models tend to overestimate sea ice extent in March compared to 
                         observations. The correct evaluation of minimum record of sea ice, 
                         in terms of time, spatial and area remains a limitation in Coupled 
                         Global Climate Models. Looking to spatial patterns, we found a 
                         systematic model error in September sea ice cover between the 
                         Beaufort Sea and East Siberia for most models. Future scenarios 
                         show a decrease in sea ice extent in response to an increase in 
                         radiative forcing for all models. From the year 2045 onwards, all 
                         models show a dramatic shrinking in sea ice and ice free 
                         conditions at the end of the melting season. The projected future 
                         sea ice loss is explained by the combined effects of the amplified 
                         warming in northern hemisphere high latitudes and feedbacks 
                         processes.",
                  doi = "10.4236/acs.2016.62029",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2016.62029",
                 issn = "2160-0414",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "casagrande_arctic.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 nov. 2020"
}


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