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@Article{MourãoChouMare:2016:DoClPr,
               author = "Mour{\~a}o, Caroline and Chou, Sin Chan and Marengo, Jos{\'e}",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas aos Desastres 
                         Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "Downscaling climate projections over La Plata basin",
              journal = "Atmospheric and Climate Sciences",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "6",
                pages = "1--12",
             keywords = "Regional Climate Model, Climate Downscaling, Climate Change 
                         Assessment, La Plata Basin.",
             abstract = "Regional Climate Models are important tools, which are 
                         increasingly being used in studies of impacts and adaptation to 
                         climate change at local scale. The goal of this work is to assess 
                         the climate change over the La Plata Basin, using the Eta Regional 
                         model with a resolution of 10 km. Initial and boundary conditions 
                         used by the model are provided by the Eta-20 km model and the 
                         HadGEM2- ES Global model. The RCP 4.5 scenario was used for 
                         simulations of the future climate. The evaluation of the present 
                         climate (1961-1990) shows that the model represents well the 
                         spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature 
                         in the region. The model underestimates precipitation over large 
                         areas in summer, and overestimates in Southern Brazil in winter. 
                         Simulated temperature shows a good correlation with CRU data, with 
                         bias less than 1\˚C. The bias of temperature and 
                         precipitation in this simulation setup for the La Plata Basin is 
                         substantially reduced in comparison with previous literature using 
                         regional models. The climatic projections are shown in timeslices: 
                         2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. In the three timeslices, the 
                         simulation project has a trend for an increase in precipitation 
                         during summer in Argentina, Uruguay, and southernmost Brazil. This 
                         increase is only projected in Southern Brazil during winter. The 
                         negative anomaly of precipitation appears in a large portion of 
                         the model domain during summer and is limited to some states in 
                         Southeast and Central-West Brazil in winter. The area with largest 
                         warming is projected in the northern portion of the domain. The 
                         projected increase in temperature reaches about 4\˚C in 
                         2071-2099.",
                  doi = "10.4236/acs.2016.61001",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2016.61001",
                 issn = "2160-0414",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "mourao-downscaling.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "01 dez. 2020"
}


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