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@PhDThesis{Brito:2016:EsCeEm,
               author = "Brito, Alan de",
                title = "Heterogeneidade espa{\c{c}}o-temporal do desmatamento do Cerrado 
                         brasileiro: estimativas e cen{\'a}rios de emiss{\~o}es de 
                         carbono",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2016",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2016-05-30",
             keywords = "savana brasileira, emiss{\~a}o de gases de efeito estufa, 
                         cen{\'a}rios, desmatamento, cerrado, brazilian savanna, carbon 
                         book-keeping, scenarios, deforestation.",
             abstract = "O objetivo deste trabalho foi o de promover o entendimento da 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre a din{\^a}mica espa{\c{c}}o-temporal 
                         do processo de desmatamento e a heterogeneidade intrarregional do 
                         Cerrado Brasileiro, a fim de subsidiar a constru{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         um modelo espacialmente expl{\'{\i}}cito de estimativas de 
                         emiss{\~o}es atuais e futuras de gases de efeito estufa (GEE). 
                         Para tanto, foi constru{\'{\i}}do um banco de dados espacial e 
                         multitemporal, onde foram inseridas informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 
                         distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de desmatamento, de densidade de biomassa 
                         e 36 vari{\'a}veis ambientais, de acessibilidade a mercados, 
                         atratividade econ{\^o}mica, demogr{\'a}ficas, tecnol{\'o}gicas, 
                         de estrutura agr{\'a}ria, sociais e econ{\^o}micas. A 
                         an{\'a}lise do padr{\~a}o do desmatamento ocorrido no bioma foi 
                         realizada por meio da constru{\c{c}}{\~a}o de Mapas de Kernel e 
                         da an{\'a}lise do desmatamento por Estado da 
                         Federa{\c{c}}{\~a}o e tipo de forma{\c{c}}{\~a}o vegetacional 
                         (campestre, sav{\^a}nica e florestal). Foi tamb{\'e}m realizada 
                         a An{\'a}lise de Agrupamentos para promover a 
                         estratifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o do Cerrado de acordo com as 
                         caracter{\'{\i}}sticas ambientais e socioecon{\^o}micas com o 
                         intuito de caracterizar o desmatamento de acordo com as 
                         subregi{\~o}es estratificadas. Adicionalmente, foram estimadas as 
                         emiss{\~o}es de carbono por desmatamento de forma espacialmente 
                         expl{\'{\i}}cita, personalizando o arcabou{\c{c}}o 
                         gen{\'e}rico de modelagem INPE-EM para o bioma: o INPE-EM 
                         BRCerrado. De acordo com os resultados obtidos com a 
                         caracteriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o do desmatamento, o modo n{\~a}o 
                         espacial do modelo (1850-2002) foi parametrizado, analisando o 
                         carbono liberado para cada regi{\~a}o estratificada e avaliando 
                         as incertezas das estimativas associadas. Foram realizadas 
                         estimativas para tr{\^e}s diferentes cen{\'a}rios futuros de 
                         desmatamento at{\'e} 2030, tomando como base 
                         informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es dispon{\'{\i}}veis na literatura 
                         cient{\'{\i}}fica e hip{\'o}teses baseadas na revis{\~a}o do 
                         C{\'o}digo Florestal Brasileiro (CFB) e na 
                         Contribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o Nacionalmente Determinada Pretendida 
                         (iNDC) do pa{\'{\i}}s. Por fim, foram estimadas as emiss{\~o}es 
                         l{\'{\i}}quidas (emiss{\~a}o CO\$_{2}\$ por corte raso - 
                         absor{\c{c}}{\~a}o CO\$_{2}\$ por regenera{\c{c}}{\~a}o) 
                         para os tr{\^e}s cen{\'a}rios, de acordo com cada tipo de 
                         forma{\c{c}}{\~a}o vegetacional. Os resultados da an{\'a}lise 
                         espa{\c{c}}o-temporal do desmatamento do Cerrado mostraram que os 
                         desmatamentos ocorridos at{\'e} o ano de 2002 e entre 2002 e 2010 
                         apresentam padr{\~o}es distintos. At{\'e} 2002, o desmatamento 
                         incidiu mais sobre as forma{\c{c}}{\~o}es campestres (54,5\%), 
                         seguidas pelas forma{\c{c}}{\~o}es sav{\^a}nicas (41,4\%) e 
                         florestais (44,2\%). Entre 2002 e 2010, a maioria das perdas de 
                         vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o nativa (26,54\%) ocorreu {\`a} custa da 
                         supress{\~a}o de forma{\c{c}}{\~o}es sav{\^a}nicas. At{\'e} 
                         2010 46,27\%, 69,5\% e 49,54\% das forma{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         sav{\^a}nicas, campestres e florestais foram perdidos, 
                         respectivamente. As emiss{\~o}es brutas de gases de efeito estufa 
                         para o Cerrado Brasileiro entre 1850 e 2010 totalizaram 10,8 
                         GtonCO\$_{2}\$ e (2,95 PgC). Estimativas para o per{\'{\i}}odo 
                         2002-2010, obtidas utilizando dados oficiais de desmatamento 
                         espacialmente expl{\'{\i}}citos, foram de 1,37 GtonCO\$_{2}\$ 
                         e (0,37 PgC). Em rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao total, as 
                         forma{\c{c}}{\~o}es florestais s{\~a}o as maiores fontes de 
                         emiss{\~a}o, seguidas pelas sav{\^a}nicas e por {\'u}ltimo as 
                         campestres. Entre 2002 e 2010, aproximadamente 86\% das 
                         emiss{\~o}es foram concentradas na frente de expans{\~a}o do 
                         desmatamento localizada na regi{\~a}o de MATOBIPA (estados do 
                         Maranh{\~a}o, Tocantins, Piau{\'{\i}} e Bahia), e nos estados 
                         de Goi{\'a}s e Minas Gerais. As an{\'a}lises de sensibilidade 
                         revelaram que as estimativas de {\'a}reas desmatadas foram uma 
                         grande fonte de incertezas nas estimativas de emiss{\~o}es 
                         (46\%). Adicionalmente, foram comparadas as emiss{\~o}es futuras 
                         potenciais de acordo com os tr{\^e}s diferentes cen{\'a}rios: 
                         (a) desmatamento \${''}\$legal \${''}\$ de acordo com a 
                         revis{\~a}o do CFB; (b) continuidade das taxas hist{\'o}ricas de 
                         desmatamento e; (c) meta alternativa de redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         emiss{\~a}o para o Cerrado, no contexto da iNDC Brasileira. Os 
                         resultaram indicaram que sem a{\c{c}}{\~o}es pol{\'{\i}}ticas 
                         adicionais, o cumprimento do CFB pode levar {\`a} 
                         libera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 0,55 PgC (2 GtonCO\$_{2}\$) na 
                         atmosfera. Por outro lado, a meta alternativa de 
                         redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da emiss{\~a}o associada ao desmatamento do 
                         Cerrado, apresentou potencial de redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         aproximadamente 60\% (0,81 GtonCO\$_{2}\$ ou 0,22 PgC) at{\'e} 
                         2030. Finalmente, as emiss{\~o}es l{\'{\i}}quidas m{\'e}dias 
                         dos Cen{\'a}rios A, B e C foram estimadas em 100 MtonCO\$_{2}\$ 
                         \∙ano\$^{-1}\$, 49 MtonCO\$_{2}\$ 
                         \∙ano\$^{-1}\$, e 41 
                         MtonCO\$_{2}\$\∙ano\$^{-1}\$,, respectivamente, 
                         reconsiderando a recomposi{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 100\% do passivo de 
                         Reserva Legal entre os anos de 2016 e 2030. ABSTRACT: This work 
                         aimed to understand the relationship between the spatial-temporal 
                         dynamics of forest clearing and the intra-regional heterogeneity 
                         in the Brazilian Cerrado, in order to subsidize the development of 
                         a spatial explicit model for actual and future emissions estimates 
                         of greenhouse gases (GHG). For this, a spatial and multitemporal 
                         geodatabase was built with information regarding forest clearing 
                         distribution, biomass density, and 36 variables concerning market 
                         accessibility, economic attractiveness, demography, technology, 
                         agrarian infrastructure, social, and economic data. Forest 
                         clearing pattern analysis in the biome was performed through the 
                         analysis of Kernel maps, the forest clearing data in the Brazilian 
                         States and vegetacional units (grassland, savanna, and forest). 
                         The biome was stratified in regions according to its environmental 
                         and socioeconomic characteristics through a Cluster Analysis in 
                         order to characterize the forest clearing patterns within these 
                         regions. Additionally, carbon emissions from deforestation were 
                         spatially explicit estimated by adapting the INPE-EM modelling 
                         framework to the biome: the INPE EM BRCerrado. The non-spatial 
                         mode of the model (1850-2002) was parameterized according to the 
                         results obtained from the forest clearing characterization. The 
                         carbon released was analyzed within the stratified regions and the 
                         associated uncertainties were evaluated. Carbon emissions 
                         estimates for three different future scenarios of forest clearing 
                         were performed for the biome up to 2030. These scenarios were 
                         based on information available in scientific literature and 
                         hypotheses based on both Brazilian Forest Code revision and in the 
                         \emph{intended Nationally Determined Contribution} (iNDC). 
                         Lastly, Net Emissions (CO\$_{2}\$ emissions from clear cut - CO2 
                         absorptions through regeneration) were estimated for the three 
                         scenarios according to the vegetation unit. The results of the 
                         deforestation spatial-temporal analysis revealed that forest 
                         clearing that had occurred up to 2002 and between 2002 and 2010 
                         had distinct patterns. Up to 2002, deforestation occurred mainly 
                         on grasslands (54.5\%), followed by savannas (41.2\%). Between 
                         2002 and 2010, the most of the native vegetation loss (26,5\%) 
                         occurred on the expenses of savanna formations. By 2010, 46.27\%, 
                         69.5\%, and 49.54\% of savannas, grasslands, and forest were 
                         lost, respectively. Between 1850 and 2010, gross deforestation 
                         emissions for the Brazilian Cerrado totaled 13.44 GtonCO2e (3.66 
                         PgC). Estimates for the period 2002-2010, obtained using official 
                         spatially explicit deforestation estimates were of 1.438 
                         GtonCO\$_{2}\$ e (0.40 PgC). We found that, relative to total 
                         emissions, woodland removal were the main sources of GHG from land 
                         cover change, followed by shrublands and grasslands. Between 2002 
                         and 2010, \$\approx\$86\% of the emissions were concentrated 
                         in the MATOPIBA region (Maranh{\~a}o, Tocantins, Piau{\'{\i}}, 
                         and Bahia federal states), an expanding deforestation frontier, 
                         and also in federal states of Goi{\'a}s and Minas Gerais. Our 
                         sensitivity analysis revealed that dissimilar deforestation 
                         estimates were the major source of estimates uncertainty (46\%) 
                         followed by the heterogeneous distribution of biomass across space 
                         (17.5\%). Additionally, we compared potential future emissions 
                         according to three different scenarios: (a) legal deforestation 
                         according to the Brazilian Forest code (b) historical 
                         deforestation rates continuity; (c) alternative emission reduction 
                         target for the Cerrado in the context of the Brazilian Intended 
                         Nationally Determined Contribution (iNDC). Our results indicated 
                         that without further policy actions, the compliance with the 
                         Brazilian Forest Code could lead to the release of 3.7 
                         GtonCO\$_{2}\$e (1.01 PgC) into the atmosphere. On the other 
                         hand, our alternative target for emissions reduction in the 
                         Cerrado, showed the potential to decrease emissions in 60\% (0.81 
                         GtonCO\$_{2}\$ or 0.22 PgC) at{\'e} 2030. Finally, average Net 
                         Emissions of the scenarios A, B, and C were estimated in 100 
                         MtonCO\$_{2}\$ \∙ano\$^{-1}\$, 49 MtonCO\$_{2}\$ 
                         \∙ano\$^{-1}\$ e 41 MtonCO2\∙ano\$^{-1}\$, 
                         respectively, considering the recomposition of 100\% of the Legal 
                         Reserve debt between 2016 and 2030.",
            committee = "Alval{\'a}, Pl{\'{\i}}nio Carlos (presidente) and Aguiar, Ana 
                         Paula Dutra de (orientadora) and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de and 
                         Bustamante, Mercedes Maria da Cunha and Acerbi J{\'u}nior, Fausto 
                         Weimar",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
         englishtitle = "Space-time heterogeneity of the brazilian cerrado deforestation: 
                         estimates and scenarios of carbon emissions",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "174",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3LSQB68",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3LSQB68",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 dez. 2020"
}


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