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@InProceedings{BalanEbSkOmBaNa:2016:InFoSe,
               author = "Balan, Nalan and Ebihara, Yusuke and Skoug, R. and Omura, 
                         Yoshiharu and Batista, Inez Staciarini and Nakamura, Takuji",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Kyoto 
                         University} and {Los Alamos National Laboratory} and {Kyoto 
                         University} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {National Institute of Polar Research}",
                title = "Indices for forecasting severe space weather",
                 year = "2016",
         organization = "Annual Meeting Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, 13. (AOGS)",
             abstract = "Indices for Forecasting Severe Space Weather Nanan BALAN1#+, 
                         Yusuke EBIHARA2, R. SKOUG3, Yoshiharu OMURA2, Inez BATISTA1, 
                         Takuji NAKAMURA4 1 National Institute for Space Research, Brazil, 
                         2 Kyoto University, Japan, 3 Los Alamos National Laboratory, 
                         United States, 4 National Institute of Polar Research, Japan 
                         #Corresponding author: balannanan@gmail.com +Presenter We suggest 
                         indices for forecasting severe space weather (SvSW) at the Earth 
                         that can damage technological systems such as electric power grids 
                         for the first time using ACE and IMP satellite data and Dst index. 
                         We study the characteristics of the CMEs that produced all 90 
                         intense geomagnetic storms (DstMin < -100 nT) including 2 SvSW 
                         events since 1998 and earlier SvSW events such as the Carrington 
                         event of 1859, Quebec event of 1989 and an event in 1958. The CME 
                         and IMF parameters corresponding to the main phase (MP) of the 
                         geomagnetic storms are used to develop a forecast scheme. The 
                         scheme is tested using hourly values of solar wind and IMF. The 
                         results reveal that (1) all known electric power outages happened 
                         during the SvSW events that produced extreme geomagnetic storms 
                         having high mean Dst during MP (mean DstMP < -250 nT). (2) The 
                         products (\ΔV x Bz), (V x Bz) and (P x Bz) show very large 
                         negative values at the CME fronts (of velocity \ΔV) that 
                         caused SvSW, with V, P and Bz being the solar wind velocity in km 
                         s-1, dynamic pressure in nPa and north-south (northward positive) 
                         component of IMF in nT. (3) The product (\ΔV x Bz) seems a 
                         suitable index for forecasting SvSW.",
  conference-location = "Beijing",
      conference-year = "31 July - 05 Aug.",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "26 nov. 2020"
}


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