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@Article{GuimarăesCoVaSiSaArSo:2016:ClChPr,
               author = "Guimar{\~a}es, Sullyandro Oliveira and Costa, Alexandre 
                         Ara{\'u}jo and Vasconcelos J{\'u}nior, Francisco das Chagas and 
                         Silva, Emerson Mariano da and Sales, Domingo Cassain and 
                         Ara{\'u}jo J{\'u}nior, Luiz Martins de and Souza, Samuel 
                         Galv{\~a}o",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)} and {Universidade Federal do 
                         Cear{\'a} (UFCE)} and {Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Cear{\'a} (UFCE)}",
                title = "Climate change projections over the Brazilian northeast of the 
                         CMIP5 and CORDEX models",
              journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "31",
               number = "3",
                pages = "337--365",
                month = "July/Sept.",
             keywords = "CMIP5, CORDEX, Northeast Brazil.",
             abstract = "This work addresses the performance and projections of climate 
                         simulations from CMIP5 global models and CORDEX regional climate 
                         models over Northeast Brazil (NEB). For this study, NEB climate 
                         was characterized by the following variables: near surface air 
                         temperature (TAS), precipitation (PR), potential 
                         evapotranspiration (ETo), and aridity index (IA). In verification 
                         methodology of the models we utilized statistical metrics such as 
                         mean square error, statistical bias, Pearson correlation and 
                         concordance index. In general, the ensemble mean of the 
                         simulations (M) produces a significant representation of NEB 
                         recent (1985-2005) climate. The projections ofMfor scenarios of 
                         future emissions of greenhouse gases, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, show 
                         generalized increase in the temperature, with 2079-2099 
                         (long-term) temperature anomalies over NEB ranging between 2.1 °C 
                         (RCP4.5) and 4 °C (RCP8.5). The ETo rates are more likely to 
                         increase during the 21st century, with the RCP8.5 long-term mean 
                         15% higher than reference values for recent climate. Projection of 
                         precipitation is inconclusive due to significant spread among the 
                         individual simulations, with M indicating a anomaly of-1.6% in 
                         RCP8.5 long-term mean. Projected IA is reduced in most simulations 
                         of future climate, suggesting a greater chance of increased 
                         aridity over NEB during this century.",
                  doi = "10.1590/0102-778631320150150",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778631320150150",
                 issn = "0102-7786",
             language = "pt",
           targetfile = "guimaraes_projecoes.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 nov. 2020"
}


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