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@PhDThesis{Arguello:2017:SiHiBa,
               author = "Arguello, Fernanda Viana Paiva",
                title = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o hidrol{\'o}gica da bacia do rio Paraitinga 
                         para an{\'a}lise das potenciais causas do evento extremo de cheia 
                         e desastre ocorrido na passagem de ano de 2009/2010",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2017",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2016-08-30",
             keywords = "inunda{\c{c}}{\~a}o, modelo SWAT, mudan{\c{c}}a de uso e 
                         cobertura da terra, flood, SWAT model, land use cover changes.",
             abstract = "Devido aos enormes preju{\'{\i}}zos econ{\^o}micos, sociais e 
                         ambientais causados pelos eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos, o foco 
                         deste trabalho {\'e} buscar um maior entendimento para o 
                         fen{\^o}meno de cheia extrema ocorrido no Munic{\'{\i}}pio de 
                         S{\~a}o Luiz do Paraitinga, Estado de S{\~a}o Paulo, na passagem 
                         do ano de 2009/2010. Para tanto, foi utilizada uma ferramenta de 
                         modelagem hidrol{\'o}gica de base f{\'{\i}}sica, o modelo SWAT, 
                         com o objetivo de testar a hip{\'o}tese de que as mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         no uso e cobertura da terra ocorridos na regi{\~a}o desde o 
                         in{\'{\i}}cio de ocupa{\c{c}}{\~a}o teriam acentuado o efeito 
                         da chuva intensa na bacia. Em termos metodol{\'o}gicos, a 
                         pesquisa foi dividida em duas etapas: i) 
                         caracteriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o do evento extremo de chuva com 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a} intensidade ocorrido na passagem de ano 
                         (2009/2010) em S{\~a}o Luiz do Paraitinga atrav{\'e}s da 
                         an{\'a}lise de s{\'e}rie hist{\'o}rica de dados de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e vaz{\~a}o; ii) aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         do modelo SWAT para analisara potencial influ{\^e}ncia das 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as de uso e cobertura da terra sobre o padr{\~a}o 
                         das descargas h{\'{\i}}dricas no Rio Paraitinga.Os resultados 
                         mostraram que o modelo SWAT reproduziu de forma satisfat{\'o}ria 
                         a vaz{\~a}o hist{\'o}rica de 01/01/1984 a 31/12/2011 e para o 
                         dia do evento. O modelo tamb{\'e}m permitiu entender que a 
                         mudan{\c{c}}a de uso e cobertura da terra de pastagem para 
                         floresta (cen{\'a}rio 1 - C1) e de pastagem para eucalipto 
                         (cen{\'a}rio 2 - C2) n{\~a}o poderia ter evitado a 
                         ocorr{\^e}ncia do evento extremo de cheia do evento em 
                         quest{\~a}o pois verificou-se ligeira diminui{\c{c}}{\~a}o das 
                         vaz{\~o}es simuladas dos cen{\'a}rios para o m{\^e}s de 
                         dezembro de 2009 e especificamente para o dia do evento. ABSTRACT: 
                         Due to the large economic, social and environmental damage caused 
                         by extreme weather events, the focus of this research is to 
                         understand the extreme flood phenomenon occurred in S{\~a}o Luiz 
                         do Paraitinga (S{\~a}o Paulo State, Brazil) 2010 New Year's Eve. 
                         Therefore, SWAT model (a physically base hydrological model) was 
                         used in order to test the hypothesis that land use cover change 
                         that have occurred since the beginning of the occupation period in 
                         the region would have exacerbated the heavy rainfall effect in the 
                         basin. Methodologically, the research was divided into two steps: 
                         i) characterization of extreme rain event with respect to the 
                         intensity occurred in the 2010 New Years Eve in S{\~a}o Luiz do 
                         Paraitinga through the analysis of the rainfall and flow time 
                         series; ii) application of the SWAT model to analyze the potential 
                         impact of land use cover change on the Paraitinga River water 
                         discharges pattern. The results showed that the SWAT to simulate 
                         the extreme event of flood occurred in the passage of the years 
                         2009/2010 reproduced satisfactorily the flow rate for the day of 
                         the event and for the period January 1\$^{st}\$, 1984 to 
                         December 31\$^{st}\$, 2011 (historical series). The SWAT model 
                         also enabled to understand that the change pasture to forest 
                         (scenario 1 - C1) and pasture to eucalyptus (scenario 2 - C2) 
                         could not have prevented the occurrence of this extreme flood 
                         event, considering the slight decrease in the scenarios simulated 
                         flow for the month of December 2009 and specifically to the day of 
                         the event. However, the simulation allowed to know the water 
                         balance of the scenarios (C1 and C2) for comparison with the 
                         baseline scenario.",
            committee = "Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de (presidente) and Borma, Laura De Simone 
                         (orientadora) and Renn{\'o}, Camilo Daleles and Val{\'e}rio 
                         Filho, Mario and Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
         englishtitle = "Hidrologic simulation of the Paraitinga river basin for the 
                         potential causes examination of the 2010 new year’s eve extreme 
                         event of flood and disaster",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "132",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3ML4LJ2",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3ML4LJ2",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "24 nov. 2020"
}


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