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@Article{NobreOlBoCaSiCa:2016:LaClCh,
               author = "Nobre, Carlos Afonso and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de and Borma, 
                         Laura de Simone and Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos and Silva, 
                         Jos{\'e} S. and Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Planetary Skin Institute} and {Universidade de Bras{\'{\i}}lia 
                         (UnB)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a 
                         novel sustainable development paradigm",
              journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United 
                         States of America",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "113",
               number = "39",
                pages = "10759--10768",
                month = "Sept.",
             keywords = "Amazon tropical forests, Amazon sustainability, Amazon land use, 
                         Amazon savannization, climate change impacts.",
             abstract = "For half a century, the process of economic integration of the 
                         Amazon has been based on intensive use of renewable and 
                         nonrenewable natural resources, which has brought significant 
                         basin-wide environmental alterations. The rural development in the 
                         Amazonia pushed the agricultural frontier swiftly, resulting in 
                         widespread land-cover change, but agriculture in the Amazon has 
                         been of low productivity and unsustainable. The loss of 
                         biodiversity and continued deforestation will lead to high risks 
                         of irreversible change of its tropical forests. It has been 
                         established by modeling studies that the Amazon may have two 
                         {"}tipping points,{"} namely, temperature increase of 4 degrees C 
                         or deforestation exceeding 40% of the forest area. If 
                         transgressed, large-scale {"}savannization{"} of mostly southern 
                         and eastern Amazon may take place. The region has warmed about 1 
                         degrees C over the last 60 y, and total deforestation is reaching 
                         20% of the forested area. The recent significant reductions in 
                         deforestation-80% reduction in the Brazilian Amazon in the last 
                         decade-opens up opportunities for a novel sustainable development 
                         paradigm for the future of the Amazon. We argue for a new 
                         development paradigm-away from only attempting to reconcile 
                         maximizing conservation versus intensification of traditional 
                         agriculture and expansion of hydropower capacity-in which we 
                         research, develop, and scale a high-tech innovation approach that 
                         sees the Amazon as a global public good of biological assets that 
                         can enable the creation of innovative high-value products, 
                         services, and platforms through combining advanced digital, 
                         biological, and material technologies of the Fourth Industrial 
                         Revolution in progress.",
                  doi = "10.1073/pnas.1605516113",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1605516113",
                 issn = "0027-8424",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Nobre_land.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 nov. 2020"
}


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