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@Article{MirandaPeroGled:2016:EvCiWa,
               author = "Miranda, L. C. M. and Perondi, Leonel Fernando and Gleditsch, K. 
                         s.",
          affiliation = "{University of Essex} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of Essex}",
                title = "The evolution of civil war severity, 1816-2005",
              journal = "Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "22",
               number = "3",
                pages = "247--276",
                month = "Aug.",
             keywords = "Civil war, Frequency-severity distributions, Severity.",
             abstract = "Previous analyses of civil war trends tend to be informal and 
                         consider only post 1945 data. We examine data on civil wars over 
                         the period 1816-2005, using new methods for evolutionary growth 
                         processes. We find a number of new patterns and trends in civil 
                         war that have received little attention in previous research, 
                         including a structural break in frequency of conflict with 
                         decolonialization, as well as evidence of periodicity in civil 
                         conflict. We develop new measures of civil war intensity and 
                         impact, and find that conflicts have been generally more severe in 
                         the 20th than in the 19th century. We also find that the 
                         frequency-severity distribution of civil war does not appear to 
                         follow a power-law distribution, unlike data on many other types 
                         of conflict. Although structural trends suggest an increase in 
                         future civil wars, we discuss possible limiting factors that might 
                         prevent this in light of the recent observed decline in civil wars 
                         after the Cold War.",
                  doi = "10.1515/peps-2016-0012",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/peps-2016-0012",
                 issn = "1079-2457",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "27 nov. 2020"
}


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