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@Article{RibeiroSaleMarcLoyo:2016:AsMaEx,
               author = "Ribeiro, Bruno R. and Sales, Lilian P. and Marco J{\'u}nior, 
                         Paulo de and Loyola, Rafael",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFGO)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFGO)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Assessing mammal exposure to climate change in the Brazilian 
                         Amazon",
              journal = "PLoS ONE",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "11",
               number = "11",
                month = "Nov.",
             abstract = "Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to 
                         biodiversity in the 21st century. Species' response to climate 
                         change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to 
                         adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however 
                         uneven within species' range, so that some populations may be more 
                         at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to 
                         climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on 
                         determining species' vulnerability across their geographic ranges. 
                         Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate 
                         change across species' ranges. We identified areas in the 
                         Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to 
                         non-analogue climates in the future with different variables 
                         predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also 
                         built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon 
                         protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on 
                         mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found 
                         that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue 
                         climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That 
                         percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic 
                         species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their 
                         range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic 
                         variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and 
                         northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature 
                         anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by 
                         rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number 
                         of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our 
                         results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate 
                         change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient 
                         enough to avert those impacts.",
                  doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0165073",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165073",
                 issn = "1932-6203",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "ribeiro_assessing.PDF",
        urlaccessdate = "24 nov. 2020"
}


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