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@MastersThesis{Carrasco:2017:MéAvOr,
               author = "Carrasco, Arletis Roque",
                title = "M{\'e}todo de avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o orientada a objeto aplicado 
                         {\`a}s previs{\~o}es de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre a 
                         Am{\'e}rica do Sul",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2017",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2017-03-03",
             keywords = "precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, t{\'e}cnicas de verifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         espacial, avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o orientada a objeto, atributos 
                         geom{\'e}tricos, precipitation forecast, spatial verification 
                         techniques, object-based evaluation, geometrics attributes.",
             abstract = "O presente estudo tem como objetivo principal, baseado no 
                         algoritmo do Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE), 
                         propor e aplicar uma metodologia de avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         diagn{\'o}stica orientada a objeto nas previs{\~o}es de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul. A 
                         metodologia proposta foi implementada dentro do Sistema 
                         Comunit{\'a}rio de Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de Modelos 
                         Num{\'e}ricos de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Clima (SCANTEC) - este 
                         um software estat{\'{\i}}stico que encontra-se em constante 
                         desenvolvimento na Divis{\~a}o de Modelagem e Desenvolvimento 
                         (DMD) do CPTEC/INPE. Um experimentos de casos idealizados permitiu 
                         validar a implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o do m{\'e}todo e mostrar 
                         tamb{\'e}m as suas vantagens com rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o as 
                         m{\'e}tricas convencionais de avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Para a 
                         aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o dessa metodologia, como prova de conceito, 
                         foram realizados experimentos usando as previs{\~o}es do modelo 
                         BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System) e 
                         comparadas com as previs{\~o}es do modelo GFS (Global Forecast 
                         System) tendo como valores de refer{\^e}ncia os dados de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o estimados no produto 3B42RT do TRMM 
                         Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Duas an{\'a}lises 
                         foram realizadas, uma primeira usando o acumulado de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 6 horas com previs{\~o}es de at{\'e} 
                         24 horas de integra{\c{c}}{\~a}o e uma segunda usando o 
                         acumulado de 24 horas de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o com 
                         integra{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos modelos de 96 horas. Ambos modelos 
                         apresentam uma ligeira tend{\^e}ncia de degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o do 
                         desempenho com a integra{\c{c}}{\~a}o no tempo, subestimando a 
                         quantidade de objetos observados errando mais por falhas do que 
                         por alarmes falsos. A aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o da metodologia de 
                         avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o orientada a 
                         objeto aqui proposta, in{\'e}dita para as previs{\~o}es geradas 
                         no CPTEC, evidenciou a seu potencial para caracterizar os 
                         padr{\~o}es espaciais das previs{\~o}es de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o fornecidas por esse centro permitindo 
                         compara{\c{c}}{\~o}es mais justas com outros produtos 
                         dispon{\'{\i}}veis. ABSTRACT: The present study has as the main 
                         objective, based on the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic 
                         Evaluation (MODE) algorithm, to propose and apply a methodology of 
                         object-based diagnostic evaluation to precipitation forecasts over 
                         South America. The proposed methodology was implemented within 
                         code of the Community System for the Evaluation of Numerical 
                         Models of Weather and Climate Prediction (SCANTEC), which is a 
                         statistical software that is constantly in development at 
                         CPTEC/INPE. An idealized case study allowed validating the 
                         methodology implemented and also showed the advantages over 
                         conventional evaluation metrics. For the application of this 
                         methodology, as proof of concept, experiments were carried out 
                         using BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modelling System) 
                         models forecasts and compared with the predictions of the GFS 
                         (Global Forecast System) model using as reference values the 
                         estimated precipitation data in the TRMM Multisatellite 
                         Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT product. Two analyses were 
                         performed: the first using 6-hour precipitation accumulated with 
                         forecasts up to 24 hours of integration, and the second using 
                         24-hour precipitation accumulated with models integration of the 
                         96 hours. Both models present a slight tendency of skill 
                         degradation in function of model integration time, underestimating 
                         the amount of observed objects. They failed more by misses than by 
                         false alarms. The application of the precipitation objective-based 
                         evaluation methodology proposed here, unpublished for CPTEC 
                         forecasts, demonstrated its potential to characterize the spatial 
                         patterns of precipitation forecasts provided by this center 
                         allowing fairer comparisons with other available products.",
            committee = "Vila, Daniel Alejandro (presidente) and Sapucci, Luiz Fernando 
                         (orientador) and Ferreira, Nelson Jesuz and Mattos, Jo{\~a}o Gerd 
                         Zell de and Freitas, Edmilson Dias de",
         englishtitle = "Method of object-based evaluation applied to precipitation 
                         forecasts over South America",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "116",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NH9KMB",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NH9KMB",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 nov. 2020"
}


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