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@PhDThesis{Santos:2017:ClPrFu,
               author = "Santos, S{\'e}rgio Rodrigo Quadros dos",
                title = "Caracter{\'{\i}}sticas dos eventos extremos secos e chuvosos em 
                         diferentes escalas de tempo na amaz{\^o}nia: climatologia e 
                         proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2017",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2017-05-12",
             keywords = "climatologia, proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es, extremos, chuvosos, 
                         Amaz{\^o}nia, climatology, projections, extremes, rainy, 
                         Amazonia.",
             abstract = "O presente estudo visa uma caracteriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o detalhada 
                         dos eventos secos e chuvosos extremos na Amaz{\^o}nia utilizando 
                         o SPI, com dados de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o mensal do GPCC, GPCP, 
                         CPC e Era-interim, simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es e proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         em dois cen{\'a}rios opostos (RCP4.5 e RCP8.5) dos modelos 
                         HadGEM-ES e ECHAM-6. As s{\'e}ries temporais dos SPI-3, SPI-6 e 
                         SPI-12, usando dados de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o do GPCP, GPCC, 
                         CPC e Era-interim sobre a regi{\~a}o Amaz{\^o}nica apresentaram 
                         uma boa concord{\^a}ncia temporal entre si. A regi{\~a}o 
                         apresentou tend{\^e}ncias significativas de aumento dos eventos 
                         secos e chuvosos de curta (SPI-3), m{\'e}dia (SPI-6) e longa 
                         (SPI-12) dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o no GPCC e GPCP. Com 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s frequ{\^e}ncias dos eventos secos e 
                         chuvosos extremos e moderados, observou-se uma 
                         distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o heterog{\^e}nea ao longo das 
                         esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es do ano. Constatou-se que a seca de 1998 foi 
                         mais intensa que as de 2005 e 2010, que tiveram 
                         dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o mais prolongada. Avaliando o desempenho dos 
                         modelos HadGEM2-ES e ECHAM-6 em representar o SPI m{\'e}dio sobre 
                         a Amaz{\^o}nia no per{\'{\i}}odo de 1901a 2005, evidenciou-se 
                         que os valores observados nos modelos foram distintos em 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao GPCC. Esta defici{\^e}ncia na 
                         representa{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos extremos secos e de chuva est{\'a} 
                         relacionada, principalmente, aos erros sistem{\'a}ticos de 
                         superestimativa e subestimativa das precipita{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         mensais. Na an{\'a}lise das frequ{\^e}ncias dos eventos secos e 
                         chuvosos moderados e extremos observou-se que os de seca 
                         apresentam um padr{\~a}o espacial mais homog{\^e}neo que os de 
                         chuva. As proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es nos cen{\'a}rios de 
                         mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas dos modelos HadGEM2-ES e ECHAM-6 
                         para frequ{\^e}ncias dos eventos secos e chuvosos moderados e 
                         extremos, no per{\'{\i}}odo de 2015 a 2050, tamb{\'e}m 
                         apresentaram uma distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial 
                         heterog{\^e}nea ao longo das esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es do ano em ambos 
                         os cen{\'a}rios considerados. Al{\'e}m disso, n{\~a}o foram 
                         observadas grandes diferen{\c{c}}as nos valores das 
                         frequ{\^e}ncias dos eventos moderados e extremos entre os 
                         cen{\'a}rios, uma vez que as varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es das 
                         frequ{\^e}ncias destes eventos s{\~a}o similares, tanto no 
                         cen{\'a}rio intermedi{\'a}rio (RCP4.5) como no pessimista 
                         (RCP8.5). ABSTRACT: The present study aims at a detailed 
                         characterization of extreme dry and rainy events in Amazonia using 
                         SPI based on four precipitation datasets GPCC, GPCP, CPC and 
                         Era-interim, simulations and projections in two opposite scenarios 
                         (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of HadGEM-ES and ECHAM-6 Earth-System models. 
                         The time series of the SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12, using GPCP, GPCC, 
                         CPC and Era-interim monthly rainfall data over Amazonia, presented 
                         a good temporal concordance among themselves. The region presented 
                         an increasing trends of dry and rainy events of short (SPI-3), 
                         mean (SPI-6) and long time (SPI-12) in GPCC and GPCP databases. 
                         Regarding the frequencies of extreme and moderate dry and rainy 
                         events, a heterogeneous distribution was observed throughout the 
                         seasons. Moreover, it was verified that, the 1998 drought was more 
                         intense than those of 2005 and 2010 which last longer. Evaluating 
                         the performance of the HadGEM2-ES and ECHAM-6 models in 
                         representing the average SPI over Amazonia between 1901 and 2005, 
                         it was evidenced that the average observed values in the models 
                         were distinct in relation to GPCC. This deficiency to represent 
                         extremes of dry and rainy events is mainly related to the 
                         systematic errors of over and underestimation of the monthly 
                         precipitation. In the frequency analysis of moderate and extreme 
                         dry and rainy events, it was observed that the dry events 
                         presented a more homogeneous spatial pattern than the rainy ones. 
                         The HadGEM2-ES and ECHAM-6 climatic change scenarios projections 
                         of moderate and extreme dry and rainy events frequencies for 2015 
                         to 2050, also showed a heterogeneous spatial distribution 
                         throughout the seasons in both scenarios. Furthermore, there were 
                         no major differences in the frequencies between the scenarios, 
                         since the frequencies variations were similar in the intermediate 
                         (RCP4.5) and in the worst scenario (RCP8.5).",
            committee = "Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque (presidente) and 
                         Sansigolo, Clovis Angeli (orientador) and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio 
                         and Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de and Braga, C{\'e}lia Campos",
         englishtitle = "Characteristics of extreme dry and rainy events on different time 
                         scales in amazonia: climatology and future projections.",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "258",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NMBDN8",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3NMBDN8",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 nov. 2020"
}


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