author = "Guimberteau, Matthieu and Ciais, Philippe and Ducharne, Agnes and 
                         Boisier, Juan Pablo and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de and Biemans, 
                         Hester and Deurwaerder, Hannes de and Galbraith, David and Kruijt, 
                         Bart and Langerwisch, Fanny and Poveda, German and Rammig, Anja 
                         and Rodriguez, Daniel Andres and Tejada Pinell, Graciela and 
                         Thonicke, Kirsten and Von Randow, Celso and Von Randow, Rita de 
                         C{\'a}ssia Silva and Zhang, Ke and Verbeeck, Hans",
          affiliation = "{Universit{\'e} Paris-Saclay} and {Universit{\'e} Paris-Saclay} 
                         and {Sorbonne Universit{\'e}s} and {Universidad de Chile} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Wageningen 
                         University \& Research} and {Ghent University} and {University of 
                         Leeds} and {Wageningen University \& Research} and {Potsdam 
                         Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and {Universidad 
                         Nacional de Colombia} and {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact 
                         Research (PIK)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Hohai University} and 
                         {Ghent University}",
                title = "Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the 
                         hydrology of the Amazon Basin: a multi-model analysis with a new 
                         set of land-cover change scenarios",
              journal = "Hydrology and Earth System Sciences",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "21",
               number = "3",
                pages = "1455--1475",
                month = "Mar.",
             abstract = "Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration 
                         (ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under 
                         prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of 
                         the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude 
                         and regional patterns of land-cover change (LCC), as well as on 
                         climate change and CO2 levels. On the one hand, elevated CO2 
                         decreases leaf-scale transpiration, but this effect could be 
                         offset by increased foliar area density. Using three regional LCC 
                         scenarios specifically established for the Brazilian and Boli-vian 
                         Amazon, we investigate the impacts of climate change and 
                         deforestation on the surface hydrology of the Amazon Basin for 
                         this century, taking 2009 as a reference. For each LCC scenario, 
                         three land surface models (LSMs), LPJmLDGVM, INLAND-DGVM and 
                         ORCHIDEE, are forced by bias-corrected climate simulated by three 
                         general circulation models (GCMs) of the IPCC 4th Assessment 
                         Report (AR4). On average, over the Amazon Basin with no 
                         deforestation, the GCM results indicate a temperature increase of 
                         3.3 degrees C by 2100 which drives up the evaporative demand, 
                         whereby precipitation increases by 8.5%, with a large uncertainty 
                         across GCMs. In the case of no deforestation, we found that ET and 
                         runoff increase by 5.0 and 14 %, respectively. However, in 
                         south-east Amazonia, precipitation decreases by 10% at the end of 
                         the dry season and the three LSMs produce a 6% decrease of ET, 
                         which is less than precipitation, so that runoff decreases by 22%. 
                         For instance, the minimum river discharge of the Rio Tapajos is 
                         reduced by 31% in 2100. To study the additional effect of 
                         deforestation, we prescribed to the LSMs three contrasted LCC 
                         scenarios, with a forest decline going from 7 to 34% over this 
                         century. All three scenarios partly offset the climate-induced 
                         increase of ET, and runoff increases over the entire Amazon. In 
                         the southeast, however, deforestation amplifies the decrease of ET 
                         at the end of dry season, leading to a large increase of runoff 
                         (up to + 27% in the extreme deforestation case), offsetting the 
                         negative effect of climate change, thus balancing the decrease of 
                         low flows in the Rio Tapajos. These projections are associated 
                         with large uncertainties, which we attribute separately to the 
                         differences in LSMs, GCMs and to the uncertain range of 
                         deforestation. At the subcatchment scale, the uncertainty range on 
                         ET changes is shown to first depend on GCMs, while the uncertainty 
                         of runoff projections is predominantly induced by LSM structural 
                         differences. By contrast, we found that the uncertainty in both ET 
                         and runoff changes attributable to uncertain future deforestation 
                         is low.",
                  doi = "10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017",
                 issn = "1027-5606",
                label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "guimber_impacts.pdf",
                  url = "http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/1455/2017/hess-21-1455-2017.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 nov. 2020"