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@Article{PesPeMaMaHeSc:2017:ClTrEx,
               author = "Pes, Marcelo Pizzuti and Pereira, Enio Bueno and Marengo, 
                         Jos{\'e} A. and Martins, Fernando R. and Heinemann, Detlev and 
                         Schmidt, Michael",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal de S{\~a}o Paulo (UNIFESP)} and Carl Von 
                         Ossietzky University, Institute of Physic and Carl Von Ossietzky 
                         University, Institute of Physic",
                title = "Climate trends on the extreme winds in Brazil",
              journal = "Renewable Energy",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "109",
                pages = "110--120",
                month = "Aug.",
             keywords = "Climate trends, Cluster analysis, Extreme winds, Frequency 
                         distributions, Mann-Kendall test, Wind energy.",
             abstract = "The main source of electricity in Brazil is from hydro, which has 
                         about 65.2% share of the country's electric energy matrix. 
                         However, over the last decade the wind energy increased from 19 MW 
                         to 2.2 GW. Since wind is an intermittent energy source, heavily 
                         determined by the weather and climatic conditions, and important 
                         effects on wind power generation can be expected in the mid and 
                         long term, in particular related to the impacts of extreme winds. 
                         The IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicates 
                         changes in wind speed at the surface in some regions of the world, 
                         and increased wind strength in mid-latitude regions. This study 
                         scrutinizes future scenarios of extreme winds in Brazil by 
                         applying trend analysis techniques on a 50-year historical series 
                         of observational wind speed and meteorological parameters at 10 m 
                         height in Brazil. Embracing techniques of cluster analysis it was 
                         possible to characterize six main regions with macro climatic 
                         similarities. To assess the goodness fit distribution, we 
                         designate two stations per homogenous region, taking as criteria 
                         the stations with better performance in the qualification process 
                         to determine the wind distribution pattern in each region applying 
                         the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS) and the lowest standard error 
                         (SE). After evaluating the frequency distribution of wind speed, 
                         the best fit result for the frequency distribution of maximum wind 
                         speed is the Gumbel model. The analysis of climatic trends 
                         performed by Mann-Kendall test revealed that in minimum wind speed 
                         series is not conclusive because it shows disparate results 
                         between homogeneous regions. On the other hand, the analysis of 
                         climatic trends of maximum wind speed presents 100% positive 
                         trends in Group#1, an equal number of stations with not 
                         significant trends and positive trends for Group#2, 36.8% more 
                         stations with positive trends than negative trends for Group#3 and 
                         20% of stations with more negative trends than stations with 
                         positive trends for Group#4. This way, based in these results, is 
                         possible assert that there are an increase in the maximum extreme 
                         wind in Brazil, mainly in mid-latitudes.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.renene.2016.12.101",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.12.101",
                 issn = "0960-1481",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "pes_climate.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 nov. 2020"
}


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