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@Article{LyraImRoChGeGa:2017:PrClCh,
               author = "Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda and Imbach, Pablo and Rodriguez, Daniel 
                         Andres and Chou, Sin Chan and Georgiou, Selena and Garofolo, 
                         Lucas",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Tropical 
                         Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Tropical Agricultural Research 
                         and Higher Education Center} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical 
                         rainforest",
              journal = "Climatic Change",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "141",
               number = "1",
                pages = "93--105",
                month = "Mar.",
             keywords = "Biomass, Carbon, Carbon dioxide, Climate models, Ecosystems, 
                         Forestry, Photosynthesis, Phytoplankton, Tropics, Vegetation.",
             abstract = "Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon 
                         cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary 
                         productivity and contributing to CO2 sequestration. The objective 
                         of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest 
                         biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change 
                         under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a 
                         dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an 
                         approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond 
                         to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation 
                         model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. 
                         These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs 
                         in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of 
                         regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, 
                         net primary production and changes in forest extent and 
                         distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show 
                         reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The 
                         reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The 
                         Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest 
                         remains due to the CO2 fertilization effect. The future 
                         distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of 
                         tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah 
                         and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and 
                         RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to 
                         significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, 
                         precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the 
                         biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This 
                         study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change 
                         impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10584-016-1790-2",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1790-2",
                 issn = "0165-0009",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "lyra_projections.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 nov. 2020"
}


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