author = "Krieger Filho, Guenther Carlos and Bufacchi, Paulo and Santos, 
                         Jos{\'e} Carlos dos and Veras, Carlos Alberto Gurgel and 
                         Alvarado, Ernesto C. and Mell, William and Carvalho Junior, 
                         Jo{\~a}o Andrade",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Universidade de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de Bras{\'{\i}}lia (UnB)} 
                         and {University of Washington} and {U.S. Forest Service Pacific 
                         Northwest Research Station} and {Universidade Estadual Paulista 
                title = "Probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian rainforest fuels 
                         from outdoor experimental measurements",
              journal = "European Journal of Forest Research",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "136",
               number = "2",
                pages = "217--232",
                month = "Apr.",
             keywords = "Brazilian rainforest, Flammability, Logistic regression model, 
                         Surface fire.",
             abstract = "This paper describes the development of a logistic model to 
                         predict the probability of surface fire spread in Brazilian 
                         rainforest fuels from outdoor experimental measurements. Surface 
                         fires spread over litter composed mostly of dead leaves and twigs. 
                         There were 72 individual outdoor experiments in eighteen sites. 
                         The fire propagated in 49% of the experiments. In each experiment, 
                         the litter height, litter temperature, unburned litter mass, wet 
                         and dry litter mass, soil temperature, wet and dry soil mass, 
                         ambient wind velocity, ambient air temperature, ambient air 
                         relative humidity and duration of fire spread were measured. Using 
                         these data, the rate of fire spread, litter bulk density, litter 
                         and soil moisture content, litter load and litter residue fraction 
                         were determined. For the sake of analysis, experimental results 
                         were classified into two groups: one for which the fire propagated 
                         and the other one for which the fire self-extinguished. Analyses 
                         of a logistic regression model showed that the relevant parameters 
                         for fire propagation are litter height and litter moisture 
                         content. Concerning the probability of successful fire 
                         propagation, the model showed a true positive rate of 71% and a 
                         true negative rate of 84%. The outdoor experiments also served to 
                         gather data to improve the understanding of surface fires and to 
                         provide input data for future computer simulations.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10342-016-1023-2",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10342-016-1023-2",
                 issn = "1612-4669",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "krieger_probability.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 nov. 2020"