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@PhDThesis{Santos:2017:CaObCe,
               author = "Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos",
                title = "Eventos extremos de descargas atmosf{\'e}ricas no estado de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo: casos observados e cen{\'a}rios futuros",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2017",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2017-06-09",
             keywords = "descarga atmosf{\'e}rica nuvem-solo, mecanismos 
                         din{\^a}mico-clim{\'a}ticos, proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras, 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo, cloud-to-ground lightning, dynamic-climatic 
                         mechanisms, climatic projections, S{\~a}o Paulo.",
             abstract = "O estudo de rel{\^a}mpagos {\'e} um tema que vem ganhando 
                         significativa aten{\c{c}}{\~a}o no meio cient{\'{\i}}fico, 
                         pois a partir do monitoramento de per{\'{\i}}odos de maior 
                         incid{\^e}ncia de descargas {\'e} poss{\'{\i}}vel emitir 
                         alertas de caracter{\'{\i}}sticas como intensidade, 
                         dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o e severidade de tempestades, permitindo que 
                         medidas preventivas sejam tomadas, para minimizar impactos 
                         causados por fen{\^o}menos de tempo severo. Desta forma, este 
                         trabalho tem como objetivo contribuir com o estudo das descargas 
                         atmosf{\'e}ricas no Estado de S{\~a}o Paulo, por meio da 
                         identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos eventos extremos em m{\'u}ltiplas 
                         escalas de tempo, e da an{\'a}lise dos mecanismos din{\^a}micos 
                         de grande escala associados, al{\'e}m da proje{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         cen{\'a}rios futuros deste fen{\^o}meno. Para a an{\'a}lise do 
                         clima atual, foram utilizados dados das redes de 
                         detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o de descargas atmosf{\'e}ricas RINDAT e 
                         BrasilDAT, compreendendo o per{\'{\i}}odo 1999 a 2014, al{\'e}m 
                         de dados de rean{\'a}lise da National Oceanic \& Atmospheric 
                         Administration (NOAA) e dos National Centers for Environmental 
                         Predictions/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). 
                         Para a an{\'a}lise do clima futuro, foram utilizados dados de 
                         dois robustos modelos globais: HadGEM2-ES e CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Os 
                         resultados mostraram que h{\'a} uma maior 
                         concentra{\c{c}}{\~a}o de descargas sobre o centro-leste do 
                         Estado, com m{\'a}ximos sobre a regi{\~a}o metropolitana de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo. De modo geral, observou-se que a frequ{\^e}ncia 
                         dos eventos extremos deste fen{\^o}meno vem aumentando nos 
                         {\'u}ltimos anos, com aproximadamente 60\% dos casos entre os 
                         anos de 2009 a 2014. Constatou-se que, para o per{\'{\i}}odo de 
                         1999 a 2014, a incid{\^e}ncia de descargas est{\'a} associada a 
                         padr{\~o}es clim{\'a}ticos conectando a regi{\~a}o tropical e 
                         extratropical, atrav{\'e}s de um trem de onda, com origem no 
                         Oceano {\'{\I}}ndico at{\'e} a Am{\'e}rica do Sul, favorecendo 
                         a forma{\c{c}}{\~a}o e o desenvolvimento de nuvens de 
                         tempestades convectivas sobre o Sudeste do Brasil. Na an{\'a}lise 
                         das proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras verificou-se que, enquanto em 
                         grande parte da s{\'e}rie de dados observados de descargas 
                         ocorreram eventos anomalamente abaixo da m{\'e}dia, o clima 
                         futuro revela a preponder{\^a}ncia de eventos anomalamente acima 
                         da m{\'e}dia, tanto no cen{\'a}rio de baixas emiss{\~o}es como 
                         no cen{\'a}rio de altas emiss{\~o}es, sugerindo uma 
                         mudan{\c{c}}a no padr{\~a}o de incid{\^e}ncia de descargas 
                         atmosf{\'e}ricas no Estado de S{\~a}o Paulo. ABSTRACT: The study 
                         of lightning is a topic that has gained significant attention in 
                         the scientific world, since from the monitoring of periods of 
                         higher incidence of lightning it is possible to issue warning of 
                         characteristics such as intensity, duration and severity of 
                         storms, allowing preventive measures to be taken, to minimize 
                         impacts caused by severe weather phenomena. In this way, this work 
                         aims to contribute to the study of lightning in the State of 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo, through the identification of extreme events at 
                         multiple time scales, and the analysis of the associated large 
                         scale dynamic mechanisms, as well as the projection of futures 
                         scenarios of this phenomenon. For the current climate analysis, 
                         data from the RINDAT and BrasilDAT lightning detection networks 
                         were used, comprising the period from 1999 to 2014, in addition to 
                         data from the reanalysis of the National Oceanic \& Atmospheric 
                         Administration (NOAA) and National Centers for Environmental 
                         Predictions/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). 
                         For the analysis of the future climate, we used data from two 
                         robust global models: HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. The results 
                         showed that there is a greater concentration of lightning on the 
                         center-east of the State, with maximums on the metropolitan region 
                         of S{\~a}o Paulo. In general, it has been observed that the 
                         frequency of extreme events of this phenomenon has increased in 
                         the last years, with approximately 60\% of the cases between the 
                         years of 2009 to 2014. It was found that, for the period from 1999 
                         to 2014, the lightning incidence was associated with climatic 
                         patterns connecting the tropical and extratropical region, through 
                         a wave train, from the Indian Ocean to South America, favoring the 
                         formation and development of convective storms over Southeast 
                         Brazil. In the analysis of the future projections, it was observed 
                         that, while during a large portion of the current climate we 
                         observed events of lightning below the average, the future climate 
                         reveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, 
                         both in the scenario of intermediate-low emissions and in the 
                         scenario of high emissions, suggesting a change in the pattern of 
                         the lightning incidence in the State of S{\~a}o Paulo.",
            committee = "Alval{\'a}, Plinio Carlos (presidente) and Pinto Junior, Osmar 
                         (orientador) and Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de (orientador) and 
                         Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Saraiva, Gisele dos Santos 
                         Zepka and Sim{\~o}es, S{\'{\i}}lvio Jorge Coelho",
         englishtitle = "Extreme events of lightning in the state of S{\~a}o Paulo: 
                         observed cases and future scenarios",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "221",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3P3EE7S",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3P3EE7S",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "03 dez. 2020"
}


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