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@Article{FonsecaVeiCorChoLyr:2017:AnRaEx,
               author = "Fonseca, Paula and Veiga, Jos{\'e} Augusto and Correia, Francis 
                         Wagner and Chou, Sin Chan and Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amaz{\^o}nia (INPA)} and 
                         {Universidade do Estado do Amazonas (UEA)} and {Universidade do 
                         Estado do Amazonas (UEA)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "An analysis of rainfall extremes in the northern south america and 
                         their behaviors for future climate based on a1b scenario",
              journal = "Revista Brasileira de Climatologia",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "13",
               number = "20",
                month = "jan./jul.",
             keywords = "Extreme rainfal events, Amazon, Brazilian Northeast, Climate 
                         Change, ETA model, Chuva extrema, Amaz{\^o}nia, Nordeste 
                         Brasileiro, Mudan{\c{c}}as Clim{\'a}ticas, Modelo ETA.",
             abstract = "The Brazilian Amazon (BAMZ) and Northeast Brazil (NEB) regions 
                         have been facing intense climate extremes since the beginning of 
                         21st century. In BAMZ, these climate extremes can modify the 
                         Amazon forest and its essential role in the local and remote 
                         climate. This study evaluated whether the extreme rainfall events 
                         in the both regions will be more intense and frequent in the 
                         future due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions. An adapted 
                         version of the RX5day index was applied to distinguish between 
                         different types of extreme rainfall cases in the ETA model output 
                         for the decade 2089-2099 compared to the 1980-1990 decade. The 
                         results have shown that although the total rainfall is expected to 
                         be reduced by at least 1/3 (DJF) in the case of rare events, this 
                         kind of extreme rainfall will contribute with a higher amount of 
                         rainfall and will occur more frequently in both areas by the end 
                         of the 21st century. Heavy and very heavy events decrease for both 
                         areas (total rainfall amount and frequency). Results suggest that 
                         stakeholders must be prepared to cope with the populations need 
                         for assistance during floods and rainfall reduction and reinforces 
                         the need to adapt to worse climate extremes projections. RESUMO: A 
                         Amaz{\^o}nia brasileira (BAMZ) e a regi{\~a}o nordeste (NEB) 
                         t{\^e}m passado por eventos clim{\'a}ticos extremos desde o 
                         inicio do s{\'e}culo XXI. Na AMZ esses extremos clim{\'a}ticos 
                         comprometem a floresta amaz{\^o}nica e seu papel essencial para o 
                         clima local e n{\~a}o local. Esse estudo analisou se os eventos 
                         extremos de chuva em ambas as regi{\~o}es ser{\~a}o mais 
                         intensos e frequentes no futuro devido ao aumento dos gases do 
                         efeito estufa. Uma vers{\~a}o adaptada do {\'{\i}}ndice RX5day 
                         foi utilizada para distinguir entre os diferentes tipos de casos 
                         de eventos extremos para os resultados das simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         num{\'e}ricas, provenientes das simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es com o 
                         modelo ETA para a d{\'e}cada de 2089-2099 e comparada a 
                         d{\'e}cada de 1980-1990. Os resultados mostram que embora se 
                         espere uma redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o 1/3 no total de chuva (DJF) os 
                         eventos do tipo raro ir{\~a}o contribuir com uma quantidade de 
                         chuva maior e ocorrer{\~a}o com mais frequ{\^e}ncia nas duas 
                         {\'a}reas no final do s{\'e}culo XXI. Eventos forte e muito 
                         forte diminuir{\~a}o nas duas {\'a}reas (total de chuva e 
                         frequ{\^e}ncia). Os resultados sugerem que os tomadores de 
                         decis{\~a}o dever{\~a}o estar preparados para lidar com a 
                         necessidade de assist{\^e}ncia da popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o durante 
                         as enchentes e redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de chuvas e refor{\c{c}}a a 
                         necessidade de adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o para proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 
                         eventos clim{\'a}ticos piores.",
                 issn = "2237-8642",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "fonseca_analysis.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "05 dez. 2020"
}


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