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@Article{ZwienerPaMaFaLoPe:2017:PlCoRe,
               author = "Zwiener, Victor P. and Padial, Andr{\'e} A. and Marques, 
                         M{\'a}rcia C. M. and Faleiro, Frederico V. and Loyola, Rafael and 
                         Peterson, A. Townsend",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Paran{\'a} (UFPR)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Paran{\'a} (UFPR)} and {Universidade Federal do 
                         Paran{\'a} (UFPR)} and {Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {University of Kansas}",
                title = "Planning for conservation and restoration under climate and land 
                         use change in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest",
              journal = "Diversity and Distributions",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "23",
               number = "8",
                pages = "955--966",
                month = "Aug.",
             keywords = "Aichi targets, climate change, ecological restoration, land use 
                         change, MaxEnt, spatial conservation prioritization, species 
                         distribution modelling, Zonation.",
             abstract = "AimTo propose and compare priority sites for conservation and 
                         restoration of woody plants under diverse climate and land use 
                         scenarios, considering socio-economic costs, presence of protected 
                         areas and distribution of forest remnants. LocationThe Atlantic 
                         Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. MethodsWe used ecological 
                         niche modelling to estimate geographical distributions for 2,255 
                         species under current and future climate scenarios, which we 
                         analysed in relation to spatially explicit land use projections, 
                         maps of forest remnants derived from remote sensing and 
                         socio-economic variables for each municipality within the Atlantic 
                         Forest region. We identified spatial priorities that complement 
                         the current network of protected areas under three different 
                         prioritization scenarios: (1) conservation of existing forest 
                         remnants only; (2) conservation of remnants followed by 
                         restoration of degraded habitat; and (3) unconstrained actions, in 
                         which management location is not defined a priori. We compared our 
                         results under different levels of land protection, with targets of 
                         10%, 17% and 20% of the Atlantic Forest extent. ResultsCurrent 
                         forest remnants cover only 12% of the Atlantic Forest, so targets 
                         of 17% and 20% were achieved only through active restoration. 
                         Targets of 17% and 20% captured most species and represented on 
                         average 26%-34% of species' distributions. The spatial pattern of 
                         degraded habitats negatively affected representation of 
                         biodiversity and implied higher costs and reduced efficiency of 
                         planning. We did not observe major differences between 
                         conservation prioritizations based on contrasting climate change 
                         scenarios. Main conclusionsProtection of forest remnants alone 
                         will not suffice to safeguard woody plant species under climate 
                         and land use changes; therefore, restoration actions are urgently 
                         needed in the Atlantic Forest. With integrated management actions 
                         and multicriterion nationwide planning, reaching the 17% of land 
                         protection of Aichi biodiversity targets will constitute an 
                         important step towards protecting Atlantic Forest biodiversity.",
                  doi = "10.1111/ddi.12588",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12588",
                 issn = "1366-9516",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "zwiener_planning.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 dez. 2020"
}


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