author = "Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S. and Moreno, Ana Karolina M. and 
                         Terribile, Levi and Caten, Cl{\'e}ber T. and Loyola, Rafael and 
                         Rangel, Thiago F. and Diniz Filho, Jos{\'e} Alexandre F.",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade Federal de 
                         Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal de Goi{\'a}s (UFG)}",
                title = "Fossil record improves biodiversity risk assessment under future 
                         climate change scenarios",
              journal = "Diversity and Distributions",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "23",
               number = "8",
                pages = "922--933",
                month = "Aug.",
             keywords = "conservation palaeobiology, ecological niche modelling, extinction 
                         risk, habitat tracking, jaguar (Panthera onca), multitemporal 
                         calibration, protected area effectiveness.",
             abstract = "AimConservationists have been using ecological niche modelling 
                         (ENM) to understand how climate change impacts species, estimate 
                         their extinction risk and assess species conservation status in 
                         the future. However, most ENMs are built using just current 
                         species occurrences. As short-term observations are naturally 
                         biased and incomplete in both geographical and climate spaces, 
                         palaeontologists have recommended the use of fossil data to 
                         improve species vulnerability assessments. Here, we used a time 
                         structured data set of the jaguar Panthera onca (Linnaeus, 1758) 
                         to test the implications of fossil data on distinct distribution 
                         dynamics and conservation status predicted by ENMs under future 
                         climate change scenarios. LocationThe New World. MethodsWe built 
                         two classes of ENMs, (i) using only current occurrences of P.onca 
                         and (ii) combining current and fossil information. Models were 
                         then projected onto current and future climates. ResultsNiche 
                         models calibrated using fossil data broadly predicted more 
                         optimistic conservation statuses, with larger suitable areas for 
                         the species in the future, which are geographically nearest to its 
                         current distribution and better represented within protected areas 
                         (current network of protected areas will hold significant suitable 
                         areas). Main conclusionsFossils provided complementary information 
                         about different climate conditions that species experienced though 
                         time and filled empty spaces in currently unoccupied fundamental 
                         niche. Our analyses reinforce the idea the fossil record is a 
                         valuable source of alternative information to increase the 
                         reliability of ENMs when assessing biodiversity risk. Combining 
                         ecological and palaeontological data for niche modelling increase 
                         our understanding about species responses to changing climates. 
                         Consequently, it potentially improves our knowledge on how to 
                         manage biodiversity by more reliably anticipating the effects of 
                         climate change and proactivelyrather than reactivelyplanning 
                         conservation actions over longer periods going forward.",
                  doi = "10.1111/ddi.12575",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12575",
                 issn = "1366-9516",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "lima_fossil.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 dez. 2020"