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@Article{CasagrandeTomAlvBotCar:2017:EaFlWa,
               author = "Casagrande, Leandro and Tomasella, Javier and Alval{\'a}, Regina 
                         C{\'e}lia dos Santos and Bottino, Marcus Jorge and Caram, Rochane 
                         de Oliveira",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastre Naturais (CEMADEN)} and 
                         {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastre Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de 
                         Desastre Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "Early flood warning in the Itaja{\'{\i}}-A{\c{c}}u River basin 
                         using numerical weather forecasting and hydrological modeling",
              journal = "Natural Hazards",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "88",
               number = "2",
                pages = "741--757",
                month = "Sept.",
             keywords = "Natural disasters, Flooding, H-EPS, MHD-INPE.",
             abstract = "In recent decades, population growth associated with unplanned 
                         urban occupation has increased the vulnerability of the Brazilian 
                         population to natural disasters. In susceptible regions, early 
                         flood forecasting is essential for risk management. Still, in 
                         Brazil, most flood forecast and warning systems are based either 
                         on simplified models of flood wave propagation through the 
                         drainage network or on stochastic models. This paper presents a 
                         methodology for flood forecasting aiming to an operational warning 
                         system that proposes to increase the lead time of a warning 
                         through the use of an ensemble of meteorological forecasts. The 
                         chosen configuration was chosen so it would be feasible for an 
                         operational flood forecast and risk management. The methodology 
                         was applied to the flood forecast for the Itaja\ı-Acu 
                         River basin, a region which comprises a drainage area of 
                         approximately 15,500 km2 in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, 
                         historically affected by floods. Ensemble weather forecasts were 
                         used as input to the MHD-INPE hydrological model, and the 
                         performance of the methodology was assessed through statistical 
                         indicators. Results suggest that flood warnings can be issued up 
                         to 48 h in advance, with a low rate of false warnings. Streamflow 
                         forecasting through the use of hydrological ensemble prediction 
                         systems is still scarce in Brazil. To the best of our knowledge, 
                         this is the first time this methodology aiming to an operational 
                         flood risk management system has been tested in Brazil.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s11069-017-2889-0",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2889-0",
                 issn = "0921-030X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "casagrande_early.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "24 nov. 2020"
}


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