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@MastersThesis{Bacelar:2017:PrInBr,
               author = "Bacelar, Luiz Carlos Salgueiro Donato",
                title = "Progn{\'o}sticos de inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es bruscas utilizando 
                         conjuntos de previs{\~o}es em curto prazo de radar 
                         meteorol{\'o}gico",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2017",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2017-08-30",
             keywords = "modelagem hidrol{\'o}gica distribu{\'{\i}}da, 
                         cross-correlation, ensemble, hidrometeorologia, 
                         geoestat{\'{\i}}stica, distributed hydrological modeling, 
                         cross-correlation, ensemble, hydrometeorology, geoestatistics.",
             abstract = "As inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es bruscas s{\~a}o, at{\'e} hoje, um 
                         desafio para {\'o}rg{\~a}os de monitoramento e alerta de 
                         desastres naturais no mundo inteiro. Suas ocorr{\^e}ncias 
                         est{\~a}o associadas a fatores meteorol{\'o}gicos e 
                         hidrol{\'o}gicos espec{\'{\i}}ficos. Um deles, {\'e} a chuva 
                         deflagradora na bacia, que em muitos casos n{\~a}o pode ser 
                         prevista em tempo h{\'a}bil para as analises de suscetibilidade. 
                         Sob esta {\'o}ptica, nesta disserta{\c{c}}{\~a}o foram 
                         aplicados dois m{\'e}todos de previs{\~a}o por conjunto para 
                         expor as incertezas das previs{\~o}es por 
                         extrapola{\c{c}}{\~a}o do Radar Pico do Couto: via time-lagged e 
                         a partir do modelo geoestat{\'{\i}}stico SAMPOTBM. O objetivo 
                         principal foi avaliar se os membros poderiam prever as 
                         inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es em um horizonte de previs{\~a}o de 
                         at{\'e} 120 minutos. As avalia{\c{c}}{\~o}es hidrol{\'o}gicas 
                         foram realizadas na bacia urbana (168.5 km\$^{2}\$) de Nova 
                         Friburgo, no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, a partir de quatro casos de 
                         inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es bruscas. Os resultados demonstraram que o 
                         m{\'e}todo de previs{\~a}o por cross-correlation apresenta na 
                         m{\'e}dia {\'{\i}}ndices de probabilidade de 
                         detec{\c{c}}{\~a}o superiores a 0.5 em pelo menos 1 mm de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Ao aplicar os campos previstos no Modelo 
                         Hidrol{\'o}gico Distribu{\'{\i}}do (MHD), na 
                         resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial de 250 metros e passos de tempo de 
                         30 minutos, algumas ondas de cheias puderam ser representadas ao 
                         longo dos hidrogramas, at{\'e} mesmo com 2 horas de 
                         anteced{\^e}ncia. O m{\'e}todo de composi{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 
                         cen{\'a}rios de chuva pelo time-lagged aumentou em m{\'e}dia a 
                         confiabilidade das previs{\~o}es de vaz{\~o}es em tr{\^e}s dos 
                         quatro casos analisados. O mesmo ocorreu com os campos de chuva do 
                         SAMPO-TBM. A diferen{\c{c}}a entre os m{\'e}todos foi mostrado 
                         ao aplicar o diagrama de ROC, duas horas antes das 
                         ocorr{\^e}ncias das inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es bruscas. Os 120 
                         membros do SAMPO-TBM conseguiram simular melhor os cen{\'a}rios 
                         de chuva para o caso em que n{\~a}o havia uma grande quantidade 
                         de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o prevista pelo radar. Conclui-se a 
                         partir disso que a combina{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos dois m{\'e}todos 
                         pode ser promissor para antecipa{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos alertas, o que 
                         contribuiria para a gest{\~a}o de risco mais efetiva em uma das 
                         regi{\~o}es mais afetadas pelas inunda{\c{c}}{\~o}es bruscas do 
                         pa{\'{\i}}s. ABSTRACT: Flash floods are still a challenge for 
                         natural disaster monitoring and early warning centers worldwide. 
                         Their occurrences are associated with specific meteorological and 
                         hydrological conditions. One of them is due to the rain over 
                         basin, which in many cases can not be predicted in lead time to 
                         susceptibility analysis. Therefore, in this dissertation two 
                         nowcasting methods were applied to expose the uncertainties of the 
                         predictions by extrapolation of the Pico do Couto Radar images: 
                         using time-lagged and from the geostatistical model SAMPO-TBM. The 
                         main objective was to assess whether members could predict floods 
                         within a forecast horizon prediction up to 120 minutes. For this, 
                         the hydrological evaluations were realized in the urban watershed 
                         (168.5 km\$^{2}\$) of Nova Friburgo, in the State of Rio de 
                         Janeiro, based on 4 flash flood cases. The results showed that the 
                         cross-correlation nowcasting method presents on average, a 
                         probability of detection higher than 0.5 in at least 1mm of 
                         rainfall. When the precipitation fields were applied in the 
                         Distributed Hydrological Model (MHD), within 250 meters of spatial 
                         resolution and 30 minute time steps, some flood waves could be 
                         represented along the hydrographs, even 2 hours in advance. The 
                         time-lagged method by composing rainfall scenarios increased the 
                         reliability of flow forecasts in 3 of the 4 cases analyzed. The 
                         same occurred with the SAMPO-TBM rain fields. The difference 
                         between the two methods was shown with the ROC diagram, 2 hours 
                         before the occurrence of flash floods. The 120 members of 
                         SAMPO-TBM were able to simulate better rainfall scenarios in a 
                         event that there was no amount of precipitation predicted by the 
                         radar in its nowcasting. Therefore, it is concluded that a 
                         combination of the two methods can be promising to early warnings, 
                         which would contribute to more effective risk management in one of 
                         the regions most affected by flash floods in Brazil.",
            committee = "Vila, Daniel Alejandro (presidente) and Angelis, Carlos Frederico 
                         de (orientador) and Cuartas Pineda, Luz Adriana and Beneti, Cesar 
                         Augustus Assis",
         englishtitle = "Flash flood nowcasting using weather radar rainfall ensemble",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "179",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3PHEPE2",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/rep/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3PHEPE2",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 nov. 2020"
}


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