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@Article{SilvaPutSilCarFra:2017:FiFoAc,
               author = "Silva, Carlos Patrick Alves da Silva and Puty, Claudio Alberto 
                         Castelo Branco and Silva, Marcelino Silva da and Carvalho, Solon 
                         Ven{\^a}ncio de and Franc{\^e}s, Carlos Renato Lisboa",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Universidade Federal do 
                         Par{\'a} (UFPA)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Par{\'a} (UFPA)}",
                title = "Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil's social security system",
              journal = "Plos One",
                 year = "2017",
               volume = "12",
               number = "8",
                pages = "e0184353",
                month = "Aug.",
             abstract = "Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and 
                         disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate 
                         results that would serve as background information for optimal 
                         policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for 
                         the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically 
                         change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is 
                         concerned. However, the reliability of official results is 
                         uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has 
                         ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. 
                         This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology 
                         of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out 
                         long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an 
                         empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our 
                         empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security 
                         forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have 
                         significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. 
                         Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired 
                         the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government 
                         and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the 
                         theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, 
                         we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic 
                         forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We 
                         demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to 
                         any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the 
                         computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. 
                         This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of 
                         reliability of the Social Security forecasts.",
                  doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0184353",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184353",
                 issn = "1932-6203",
                label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "01 dez. 2020"
}


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