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@Article{AnjosTole:2018:MeReAs,
               author = "Anjos, Luciano J. S. and Toledo, Peter Mann de",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal Rural da Amaz{\^o}nia (UFRA)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial 
                         ecosystems to climate change in South America",
              journal = "PloS ONE",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "13",
               number = "3",
                pages = "e0194654",
                month = "Mar.",
             abstract = "Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the 
                         integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although 
                         there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree 
                         of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we 
                         propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and 
                         mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales 
                         based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial 
                         resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling 
                         techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three 
                         stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and 
                         grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to 
                         climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous 
                         climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in 
                         the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the 
                         most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the 
                         earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or 
                         grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a 
                         higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If 
                         this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance 
                         of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their 
                         narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible 
                         consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a 
                         loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly 
                         increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another 
                         stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., 
                         savanna or grassland).",
                  doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0194654",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194654",
                 issn = "1932-6203",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "01 dez. 2020"
}


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