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@Article{LyraTCSDSSMG:2018:ClChPr,
               author = "Lyra, Andre de Arruda and Tavares, Priscila da Silva and Chou, Sin 
                         Chan and Sueiro Medeiros, Gustavo and Dereczynski, Claudine and 
                         Sondermann, Marcely and Silva, Adan and Marengo, Jos{\'e} and 
                         Giarolla, Ang{\'e}lica",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro 
                         (UFRJ)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and 
                         {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro 
                         Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in 
                         Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate 
                         model at 5-km resolution",
              journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "132",
               number = "1/2",
                pages = "663--682",
                month = "Apr.",
             abstract = "The objective of this work is to assess changes in three 
                         metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, S{\~a}o 
                         Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta 
                         Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5 
                         km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active 
                         economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events 
                         that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The 
                         analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The 
                         5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in 
                         the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the 
                         assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations 
                         were evaluated for the historical period (19611990). The 
                         comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model 
                         simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and 
                         temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with 
                         the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the 
                         precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is 
                         consistent with the observed structure and extreme values. 
                         Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show 
                         stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer 
                         season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected 
                         temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum 
                         temperatures increasing by approximately 9 C in the three 
                         metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5 
                         scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices 
                         based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall 
                         reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and 
                         between 40 and 45 % in S{\~a}o Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of 
                         these changes has negative implications to the population health 
                         conditions, energy security, and economy.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00704-017-2067-z",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2067-z",
                 issn = "0177-798X",
                label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "lyra_climate.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 dez. 2020"
}


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