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@InProceedings{RammigLPQBKPOMVN:2018:EsLiAm,
               author = "Rammig, Anja and Lapola, David M. and Pinho, Patricia and Quesada, 
                         Carlos A. N. and Brown, Irving F. and Kruijt, Bart and Premebida, 
                         Adriano and Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud and Marengo, 
                         Jos{\'e} A. and Vergara, Walter and Nobre, Carlos A.",
          affiliation = "{Technical University of Munich} and {Universidade Estadual de 
                         Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {University of Edinburgh} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas da Amaz{\^o}nia (INPA)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Acre (UFAC)} and {Wageningen University} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de 
                         Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN0} and 
                         {World Resources Institute} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Ci{\^e}ncia e Tecnologia para Mudan{\c{c}}as Clim{\'a}ticas 
                         (INCT)}",
                title = "Estimating the likelihood of an Amazon forest dieback and 
                         potential socio-economic impacts",
                 year = "2018",
         organization = "EGU General Assembly",
             abstract = "Almost 20 years ago, the Amazon forest-dieback hypothesis has been 
                         proposed indicating that a large-scale loss of Amazon rainforest 
                         may be caused by climate change which may lead to substantial 
                         changes in ecosystem functioning and structure. Here, we revise 
                         the likelihood of a potential Amazon forest dieback based on a 
                         systematic literature review. We find that still large 
                         uncertainties exist about the impacts and drivers of such event. 
                         These uncertainties include the effects of increasing temperature 
                         and atmospheric CO2 concentration, and long-term drought on forest 
                         stability, the role of nutrient cycling and potential phosphorus 
                         limitation on forest productivity and potential climate feedbacks, 
                         in particular, the potential disruption of local rainfall 
                         recycling. We assess, in the light of these uncertainties, 
                         scenarios of potential socio-economic impacts that would result 
                         from a large-scale Amazon forest dieback. For our assessment, we 
                         consider the economic losses arising from changes in the provision 
                         of ecosystem services, decreasing crop yields, reduction of 
                         hydroelectric power generation potential, reduction of fish stocks 
                         and interruption of shipping waterways. Long-term economic losses 
                         are estimated between USD \$1,367 to \$6,928 billion (16%-80% of 
                         Gross Brazilian Amazon Product), arising mainly from changes in 
                         the provision of non-market value ecosystem services, decreasing 
                         crop yields and reduction of hydroelectric power potential. 
                         Trade-off gains coming from such a forest dieback would sum less 
                         than half of the losses (USD \$576 to \$2,880 billion). We 
                         conclude that, from a risk-analysis perspective, even with a low 
                         probability of occurrence, the high socio-economic impacts of an 
                         Amazon forest dieback make it, per se, a high-risk process.",
  conference-location = "Vienna, Austria",
      conference-year = "8-13 apr.",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "ramming_estimating.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 dez. 2020"
}


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