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@Article{TavaresGiaChoSilLyr:2018:ClChIm,
               author = "Tavares, Priscila da Silva and Giarolla, Ang{\'e}lica and Chou, 
                         Sin Chan and Silva, Adan Juliano de Paula and Lyra, Andr{\'e} de 
                         Arruda",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabica coffee in 
                         southeast Brazil",
              journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "18",
               number = "3",
                pages = "873--883",
                month = "mar.",
             keywords = "Climate scenarios, Agroclimatic zoning, Arabica coffee, Eta model, 
                         Brazil.",
             abstract = "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections 
                         of global mean temperature rises are worrisome for coffee crop due 
                         to the intolerance of the Arabica species to high air temperature 
                         variations. The crop has a large participation in the Brazilian 
                         trade balance; therefore, in this study, the impacts of climate 
                         change on the potential yield of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica 
                         L.) were assessed in the areas of Southeast Brazil in future 
                         climate change scenarios. Simulations of the Eta Regional Climate 
                         Model at 5-km resolution used in this study were generated from a 
                         second dynamic downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES model runs. The 
                         projections adopted two scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration, 
                         the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and considered the period 2011-2100. The 
                         projections indicated a large reduction of about 20 to 60% of the 
                         areas currently suitable for coffee cultivation in Southeast 
                         Brazil. In the RCP8.5 scenario, at the end of century, coffee 
                         cultivation is suitable only in elevated mountain areas, which 
                         would pose difficulties to farming management due to the operation 
                         of agricultural machinery in mountain areas. In addition, coffee 
                         cultivation in these regions could produce environmental impacts 
                         in the remnant Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Areas of high climatic 
                         risk increase due to temperature increase. The projections showed 
                         that the potential yield could be reduced by about 25% by the end 
                         of the twenty-first century. These results of potential coffee 
                         yield in the future climate indicate a need for adaptation studies 
                         of Arabica coffee cultivation.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s10113-017-1236-z",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1236-z",
                 issn = "1436-3798 and 1436-378X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "tavares_climate.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "29 nov. 2020"
}


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