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@Article{CaladoDeChSuMoSa:2018:AvDeSi,
               author = "Calado, Renata Novaes and Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira and Chou, 
                         Sin Chan and Sueiro, Gustavo and Moura, Jos{\'e} Davi de Oliveira 
                         and Santos, Victor Rander da Silva",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Universidade 
                         Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)}",
                title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o do desempenho das simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es por 
                         conjunto do modelo Eta-5km para o caso de chuva intensa na Bacia 
                         do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul em janeiro de 2000",
              journal = "Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "33",
               number = "1",
                pages = "83--96",
             keywords = "simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es, precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, modelo Eta, alta 
                         resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o, parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es convectiva e de 
                         microf{\'{\i}}sica, simulations, rainfall, Eta model, high 
                         resolution, convective and microphysics parameterizations.",
             abstract = "O objetivo deste estudo {\'e} avaliar o desempenho das 
                         simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es por conjunto do modelo Eta-5km do Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais para um caso de chuva intensa 
                         ocorrido na Bacia do Rio Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul em janeiro de 
                         2000, durante um evento de Zona de Converg{\^e}ncia do 
                         Atl{\^a}ntico Sul. O conjunto de simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es {\'e} 
                         formado por 5 membros, denominados de acordo com suas 
                         parametriza{\c{c}}{\~o}es convectiva (Betts-Miller-Janjic - BMJ 
                         ou Kain-Fritsch - KF) e de microf{\'{\i}}sica (Ferrier ou Zhao): 
                         CNTRL (BMJ/Ferrier); KF (KF/Ferrier); KFMX (KF com fluxo de 
                         momentum/Ferrier); KFMXP (KF com fluxo de momentum e for{\c{c}}a 
                         do gradiente da perturba{\c{c}}{\~a}o da press{\~a}o/Ferrier) e 
                         ZHAO (BMJ/Zhao). As simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es s{\~a}o realizadas com 
                         horizontes de 24 at{\'e} 120 h e condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 
                         contorno inicial e lateral provenientes do Climate Forecast System 
                         Reanalysis. Os resultados indicam que todos os membros s{\~a}o 
                         capazes de posicionar a banda de chuva aproximadamente na mesma 
                         localiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o observada. O modelo, apesar de subestimar 
                         os valores das maiores pluviometrias di{\'a}rias, simula uma 
                         frequ{\^e}ncia maior de eventos de chuva forte. Em geral, a 
                         m{\'e}dia do conjunto apresenta melhor performance do que cada um 
                         dos membros isoladamente e as simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es com 48 h de 
                         anteced{\^e}ncia s{\~a}o superiores {\`a}s demais. ABSTRACT: 
                         The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of 
                         simulations generated by the ensemble of the Eta-5km model from 
                         the National Institute for Space Research. The evaluation was 
                         performed over the Para{\'{\i}}ba do Sul River Basin during an 
                         extreme rainfall event, occurred early in January 2000, in a South 
                         Atlantic Convergence Zone event. The 5-member ensemble is formed 
                         with different convective (Betts-Miller-Jancic - BMJ or 
                         Kain-Fritsch - KF) and microphysics (Ferrier or Zhao) 
                         parameterizations and are nominated respectively as: CNTRL 
                         (Betts-MillerJanjic/Ferrier); KF (Kain-Fritsch/Ferrier); KFMX 
                         (Kain-Fritsch with inclusion of momentum flux/Ferrier); KFMXP 
                         (Kain-Fritsch with inclusion of momentum flux and force of the 
                         perturbation of pressure gradient/Ferrier) and ZHAO 
                         (Betts-Miller-Janjic/Zhao). The simulations are integrated up to 
                         120 h and the initial and boundary conditions were taken from the 
                         Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. The results indicate that all 
                         members were able to position the rain band in about the same 
                         observed location. Although the model underestimates the highest 
                         daily precipitation amount, it simulates higher frequency of heavy 
                         rainfall events than it really occurs. In general, the ensemble 
                         mean simulation presents higher performance than each individual 
                         members and the 48-h simulations are better than the other 
                         forecast lead times.",
                  doi = "10.1590/0102-7786331008",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786331008",
                 issn = "0102-7786",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "calado_avaliacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 nov. 2020"
}


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